Will the Insurrection Act be invoked next presidential term (2025-2029)?
Will the Insurrection Act be invoked next presidential term (2025-2029)?
9
600Ṁ2572029
1D
1W
1M
ALL
48%
If Trump is elected
Resolved
N/AIf Harris is elected
Needs to be formally invoked
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Trump declare Martial Law in the US before 2029 (given a 2025 presidency)?
42% chance
Will Donald Trump be impeached in 2025?
5% chance
Will the next President [Trump] be declared incapacitated under the 25th Amendment Section 4 during the 2025-2029 term?
7% chance
Will Donald Trump invoke the Insurrection Act on April 20th?
19% chance
Will the next president be impeached?
36% chance
Will Section 4 of the 25th Amendment be invoked before Inauguration Day 2029?
8% chance
Project 2025: If elected, will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act within 3 months?
11% chance
Given Trump becoming president in 2025, will the 25th Amendment be among the Top 5 most discussed laws in 2025?
31% chance
Will Biden be impeached before July 2025?
1% chance
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his second term?
57% chance