This market speculates on which science fiction-inspired technology or phenomenon will be realized or demonstrated in 2025. Participants are encouraged to submit options that specify both the technology/phenomenon and the sci-fi media it originates from (e.g., books, movies, TV shows, or games).
The resolution will be subjective, based on whether the development closely aligns with the concept portrayed in the media and demonstrates meaningful functionality. Examples of valid options include technologies like brain-computer interfaces from Neuromancer or autonomous humanoid robots from I, Robot.
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Proposed resolution: NO on all remaining answers — RFC, 7 days
Robotaxis already resolved YES. For the rest, my read is that none met the bar in the description — "closely aligns with the concept portrayed in the media and demonstrates meaningful functionality" — during 2025.
The one I would flip on a good argument is humanoid robots (I, Robot), currently trading at 69%. Pilot deployments in manufacturing did happen, and "functional autonomous humanoid robots deployed in manufacturing" is a defensible reading of them. My hesitation is the word autonomous: the deployments I am aware of were teleoperated or narrowly scripted, which is not what the answer describes.
If you hold YES on that one, point me at a specific deployment and I will look at it properly before resolving.
Resolving 2026-09-16.
Resolution research done with AI assistance.
Case for Humanoid robots yes:
Figure 02 humanoids at BMW’s Spartanburg plant ran ~10-hour shifts, Monday–Friday, for 11 months, loading >90,000 sheet-metal parts and contributing to production of >30,000 BMW X3s — this is genuine line work, not a lab demo.
Humanoid robots like Agility’s Digit are also doing paid logistics work (bin/container handling) at GXO and in Amazon warehouses.
Case for subvocalization No:
2025 demos (e.g., AlterEgo-type systems, inner-speech BCIs) did not reach “available product” status or clearly surpass prior lab prototypes in a way that feels like the tech is actually here yet.
@FranklinBaldo can you please resolve robotaxis to yes, or clarify why Waymo and the like don't pass?
will be realized or demonstrated
yep, the resolution criteria are loose enough to allow it imo. creator has been quiet so I've resolved it
@FranklinBaldo Subvocalisation is a real phenomenon involving micromovements at the back of the throat and the larynx during reading. Musicians can also subvocalise sheet music. Its relationship to the "inner voice" is still unknown. Resolve YES
@Chumchulum yes but I'm not sure how subvocalization is used in that novel, I don't think I've read it. anybody have insights?
