Have a twitter poll across the top 4 answers, decided by me (probably the biggest 4 unless it's being gamed) Must be: Publicly available Cannot be: Just the model number of an LLM (instead could be "text generation" or "agency")

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Other, followed by GPT-7 and AGI are most likely. See the market for live updates (5 traders, as of Jun 27, 2026).

The most significant technology created by or with AI that's publicly available by Jan 2030? [resolves to Twitter poll]

MANIFOLD

The most significant technology created by or with AI that's publicly available by Jan 2030? [resolves to Twitter poll]

Ṁ280Ṁ34

2029

ALL

69%

Other

12%

AGI

18%

GPT-7

Have a twitter poll across the top 4 answers, decided by me (probably the biggest 4 unless it's being gamed)

Must be:

Publicly available

Cannot be:

Just the model number of an LLM (instead could be "text generation" or "agency")

Get

1,000

to start trading!

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Should I condition on us all still being alive enough to have a Twitter poll?

@NeelNanda I guess so? What do you think?

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