The winner(s) will be the top 3 choices.

Top by market percentage (and is therefore snipable in the last 10 seconds)?

Or is this a subjective-to-market-creator resolution market?

If it's subjective, this has an implicit death market baked into it. (Or we're betting on if you'll continue to use Manifold.) If you don't survive or if you don't stay online, our mana is trapped until the market N/As.

@Quroe please feel free to trap your mana somewhere else if you don’t like the question that I copied

Aye, Cap'n! 🫡

Nuclear energy + Transportation?

As soon as disadvantaged people can earn a living by getting an education, because it happens to make the AI smarter also, things will get much better.

Kinda bizarre that AI+Bitcoin is top when AI+Blockchain is bottom and Bitcoin runs on Blockchain

Also are these combinations as in set union 'or' (sum of their separate impacts) or set intersection 'and' (only impacts of them used together)?

@TheAllMemeingEye bitcoin is the thing, blockchain is not

@nick what does this mean?

@TheAllMemeingEye blockchain technology is only really useful for bitcoin, which is the important invention

@nick so you agree answers with bitcoin and blockchain should have very similar odds?

What's XR? Existential risks? Extinction rebellion? A room temperature superconductor candidate I haven't heard of yet?

@TheAllMemeingEye VR + AR

I copied most of this question from the 10 year version

these technologies might end the world before this is resolved.

@FinnSproule mana doesn't matter, but if the world ends: nothing matters

Define disruption

@TheAllMemeingEye

@nick wait so it needs to be unexpected? That somewhat defeats the point of a prediction market doesn't it?

@TheAllMemeingEye how would you define it?

@nick I admit I don't have a single objective definition (hence why I wondered if you had one), but some vague aspects I would intuitively expect include:

• Significant change in global average quality/way of life

• Significant change in global economic growth

• Significant societal challenges that require years for society to adapt to

• Pivotal role in a significant shift in geopolitical power balance

Some examples that meet one or more of these include:

• Stone tools

• Controlled fire

• Agriculture and animal domestication

• Copper/bronze/iron/steel metallurgy

• Wheels

• Writing

• Monetary currency

• Firearms

• The scientific method

• Industrial manufacturing

• Opioids

• Electricity

• Vaccines

• Fertiliser

• Antibiotics

• Engine vehicles

• Nuclear weapons

• Radio/television

• Computers/internet