Which company will create AGI first?

1.9kṀ4313

2036

24%

DeepMind

17%

OpenAI

15%

Anthropic

13%

xAI

11%

US Government

Communist Party of China

people not employed by a company

Other

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Will we get AGI before 2028?

15% chance

Will we get AGI before 2031?

43% chance

Will we get AGI before 2030?

33% chance

Will we get AGI before 2029?

26% chance

Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?

Will we get AGI before 2026?

4% chance

Will AI create the first AGI?

41% chance

Will China get AGI first?

33% chance

Will xAI be the first to release AGI to the public?

10% chance

When will the first AGI company get nationalized?

11 Comments

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Huffing the copium

Surely this goes up with the recent news

OpenAI makes great products and great infrastructure but let’s be honest they haven’t invented a single thing.

@Gigacasting lol

@Gigacasting But they were the ones to capitalize on the things that others invented.

@Adam I will not resolve to that. If a not listed company creates it first, it will resolve N/A

@FranklinBaldo What if one of these companies buys another? Will it resolve to both?

@FranklinBaldo I was mostly intending to expensively signal "AGI will not be created" but if there's no value in my underlying then I'll get out :P

Which company will create AGI first?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

People are also trading

Will we get AGI before 2028?

15% chance

Will we get AGI before 2031?

-3% 1d43% chance

Will we get AGI before 2030?

33% chance

Will we get AGI before 2029?

26% chance

Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?

Will we get AGI before 2026?

4% chance

Will AI create the first AGI?

41% chance

Will China get AGI first?

33% chance

Will xAI be the first to release AGI to the public?

10% chance

When will the first AGI company get nationalized?

People are also trading

People are also trading

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