VivaLaPanda avatar
closes Dec 31, 2040
What will be the main product of the first $1T AI company

It's plausible we get some very powerful AI systems that become more AGI-like in the near future, but what problems will people leverage them against successfully?

No hard resolution date, $1T nominal dollars (no inflation adjustment)

If answers overlap, I will resolve in favor of the multiple answers, giving more weight to more specific answers. I will not count a company that develops AGI and just sells it to other people who then apply it as being an answer (so if OpenAI in their current form were to hit $1T I don't think I'd count GPT-3). Has to actually be applied AI.

If you don't believe that much more powerful AI is coming, this market should still resolve eventually just because of inflation.

vluzko avatarCoding
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BTE avatarSynthetic biology
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VivaLaPanda avatar"Copilot for Lawyers/Bureaucrats"
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RyanGreenblatt avatarAssistant
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RyanGreenblatt avatarSearch
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VivaLaPanda avatarStock Trading
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Nirelsang avatarSocial Media & Ad Selection
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Nirelsang avatarMedia Generation
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BTE avatarWeapons
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MartinRandall avatarHuman extinction
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vluzko avatar
Vincent Luczkow
bought Ṁ10

By "coding" I mean something like: company develops very good AI coder. Other companies pay to have the AI write their software for them, instead of hiring their own software team.

BTE
answered
Weapons
VivaLaPanda avatar

@BTE Weapons development? AI manned weapons?

Human extinction
VivaLaPanda avatar

@MartinRandall Please send me the pitchdeck for this

vluzko avatar

What if, for instance, Google develops and uses AI internally and the total value add of AI across all their services is 1T but no particular product is worth that much? e.g. they get 500B using AI for better search and 100B using AI for better ad targeting and 50B from using AI to write better faster software etc.

VivaLaPanda avatar

@vluzko Outside the scope of the question

vluzko avatar

@VivaLaPanda Meaning you would are not counting Google as an AI company in that scenario, right?

VivaLaPanda avatar

@vluzko Yes. You could also rephrase the prediction as "what will the first $1T AI product be" but valuing individual products is hard.

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VivaLaPanda
bought Ṁ10