Will a correct solution to a Millennium Prize Problem be published by the end of 2030?
31
1kṀ37122032
47%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This will resolve YES as soon as the Clay Mathematics Institute makes a definitive indication that a solution is correct, provided that it was published by the end of the day GMT December 31, 2030. It will resolve NO at any point after the end of 2030 at which all claimed solutions published before EOD 12/31/2030 have been refuted.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will a millennium problem be solved in 2026?
13% chance
Will at least one of the remaining Millenium Problems be solved before 2030?
45% chance
Will a millennium problem be solved in 2027?
15% chance
Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI before 2032?
42% chance
Will any Millenium Prize Problem (other than the Poincaré conjecture) be solved by 2030?
47% chance
Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?
47% chance
Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium
Prize Problem before 2040?
65% chance
Will an AI System Solve One of the Remaining Millennium Prize Problems by June 2025?
1% chance
Will at least 2 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?
70% chance
Will all Millennium prize problems be solved (or proved unsolvable) by 2030?
8% chance