Time between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description)

Question

This market concerns about two events
* A: When will an AI get gold on the international mathematics olympiad, following the resolution criteria of: https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat

* B: When will AI complete the IMO grand challenge, by getting gold on the international mathematics olympiad producing machine-checkable proofs, following the resolution criteria of: https://manifold.markets/FlorisvanDoorn/will-the-imo-grand-challenge-be-com

This market asks what the duration of time is after event A and before event B. This market resolves to the shortest correct answer. For example if it takes 2 months, it will resolve to "< 4 months", because that answer mentions a shorter time frame than the answer "< 1 year". If events A and B happen at the same time, or if B happens before A (which should not happen), then this resolves "< 1 week". It will resolve to ">= 25 years" if event B has not happened 25 years after event A happened.

I will use first moment that either event is officially publicly announced in a blog post, press release, academic paper or preprint, article, website or the like, excluding any unofficial leaks.

I will not bet on this market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, >= 25 years, followed by < 25 years and < 4 years are most likely. See the market for live updates (9 traders, as of Aug 3, 2026).