Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any point between September 13, 2026, and December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM UTC, a formal, public agreement is announced that specifically addresses frontier AI safety, governance, capability pacing, security, or military application between:

• The government of the United States and the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC), OR

• One or more major American AI companies (defined as US-headquartered frontier AI developers, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, and Microsoft) and either the PRC government or major Chinese AI companies (e.g., Baidu, Tencent, Alibaba, ByteDance, DeepSeek, Moonshot AI, MiniMax).

Qualifying Agreements:

• Must be a dedicated bilateral or plurilateral agreement, memorandum of understanding (MoU), joint declaration, or treaty.

• Must be formally signed, released as an official joint statement by the participating governments or companies, or widely confirmed by credible major news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg, Associated Press).

Non-Qualifying Agreements:

• Broad multilateral agreements (e.g., G20 declarations or UN resolutions) signed by numerous nations do not qualify unless there is a distinct, separate bilateral US-China component or annex specifically targeting frontier AI coordination.

• Track-II or academic-level consensus statements, unofficial policy proposals, or informal verbal remarks by individual officials do not qualify.

• Agreements finalized prior to September 13, 2026 (such as the November 2024 Biden-Xi consensus on keeping nuclear weapons under human control) do not qualify.

If no such public agreement is announced by December 31, 2027, the market resolves to NO.

Background

In late 2024, US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping reached a consensus ensuring that nuclear weapons remain under human control rather than AI. However, friction between the two nations' AI ecosystems remains high. In September 2026, US national security agencies (NSA, FBI, CISA) issued a joint advisory warning that Chinese AI firms were carrying out "industrial-scale distillation" campaigns designed to systematically extract capabilities from leading US frontier models, including Claude, GPT, and Gemini.

Despite these tensions, bilateral channels remain active. The US and China have laid plans for dedicated government-level AI safety dialogues to discuss potential self-policing mechanisms for AI labs and joint coordination to monitor AI-directed cyberattacks. This market tracks whether these or subsequent efforts materialize into a formal, public bilateral agreement before 2028.

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