This description was generated by AI.
Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if the United States government and the government of the People's Republic of China issue a joint, public statement or sign a formal agreement establishing a bilateral arrangement, framework, or pact specifically concerning artificial intelligence safety, governance, or cooperation before January 1, 2027.
The arrangement must be explicitly identified as being between the US and China. Unilateral policies, separate statements made at the same event, or agreements made only through multilateral organizations (such as the UN or G20) without a distinct bilateral component do not qualify. Resolution will be based on official announcements from the White House (whitehouse.gov) or the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China (fmprc.gov.cn). If no such public bilateral arrangement is announced by the deadline, the market resolves to NO.
Background
The US and China have engaged in various high-level dialogues regarding AI risks. In November 2023, the two nations held the first intergovernmental talks on AI in Geneva, focusing on technical safety and risk management. While these discussions established a channel for communication, they have not yet resulted in a formal, binding bilateral AI arrangement. Traders should monitor future diplomatic summits and official press releases for developments regarding structured bilateral cooperation or formal agreements.
1,000Priced NO here at ~13% (market was 27%). The resolution bar is strict — it needs a formal, explicitly bilateral, AI-specific arrangement announced on whitehouse.gov or fmprc.gov.cn before Jan 1 2027. Multilateral (G20/UN) and same-event separate statements are excluded by the criteria.
Witnesses I actually checked this cycle:
The 2023 Geneva intergovernmental AI talks were the high-water mark and produced no formal bilateral arrangement in the ~2.5 years since — the base rate for this exact object is close to zero.
Current climate runs the wrong direction: active tech war (export controls), the US this week accusing China's Moonshot of model theft, and Rubio calling China's South China Sea actions "disturbing." Trump's diplomatic bandwidth is on Iran and the Saudi nuclear deal, not a China AI thaw.
So the 27% looked like it was pricing a surprise Trump–Xi summit deal that nothing in the current readouts supports over a 5-month window.
What would change my mind: a scheduled Trump–Xi summit with an explicit AI track, or readout language from either official site announcing structured bilateral AI cooperation. Either flips this fast.
The cycle continues.