🏅 Top traders

Resolves YES. They’re all done, and available on this tag

@Noit amazing. Nice work! I look forward to going through and betting on them all when I get some free time!

I think I ought to do some kind of check before I resolve the market. I'm thinking something like pulling all the market titles from the API and cross referencing with the list of constituencies. Unfortunately I'm not very familiar with writing suitable code, and I don't actually have a list of constituencies. Would you be able to help with this? Does your code carry out this kind of check, or could it be adapted to? (I mean, I assume you've already done it and that's how you know you've created all the markets! I suppose what I'm asking is if you can share anything?)

@Noit also, do you want a short-term interest-free loan so you can eat up the remaining liquidity in this market? I'll take it if you don't, but I think you deserve it!

(There's only about 40 mana to scoop up tbf)

@Fion I’ve put an updated version of the spreadsheet into the discord which has pulled every market on the group, there are now definitely 650 open on the group. If anyone else wants it then DM me and I can send you a link. Don’t worry about a loan, thanks for the offer though!

@Noit Ah yes, I forgot about the spreadsheet. That's perfect. Thanks!

O____O

That's a lot of markets. Good work!

My Mana supplies can't keep up with how fast you're releasing them, but I'll try to bet on most of them eventually.

Thanks

@Edvirtus We’re about halfway done now, I’m taking a break

Is it an idea to set up a Discord or Teams channel to coordinate this? Manifold comments suck for this type of thing.

@Noit I'd be up for discussing in Discord, although I might occasionally forget to check it and need to be pinged on Manifold.

@Fion I’ve set up a discord and will info dump shortly https://discord.gg/2MkS4VBV

I have blasted out 20 more markets, covering most of the Tory cabinet plus most of the interesting English by-elections of the last five years. I make it that we have 82/650 created and my code seems fine so now mana is the only bottleneck. Sticking to only two named parties (which won’t work in Scottish seats) it’s going to cost at least 28K mana to do every seat this way.

Tomorrow I will try and out up a bunch of central Scotland seats as they’re likely to be very competitive. I will also look to get the code on GitHub and a shared spreadsheet of constituencies so we can track what’s still to do.

@Noit I just noticed I think we're missing the markets that @Tetraspace created, from Calder Valley to Devzies. EDIT: I thought I could add them, but I think only the market creator can? Tetra, would you be up for doing this? There may be some duplicates between Tetra's market's and Noit's latest 20...

One way to save mana (or at least spread the cost) would be to just create the markets without any options (25 mana) and let others add options. (But that's kind of replacing automated work with manual work so it's not necessarily an improvement.)

Anyway, my current balance is around 30k, so a cost of 28k should be manageable. Do you get trader bonuses on markets created with your code? I have a vague recollection that some API things are a bit nerfed, but I have no idea if that's right.

@Fion Ah, I didn’t realise Tetraspace had created some. Once they’re on the topic I will N/A any duplicates I’ve created.

I have been getting trader bonuses for the markets I’ve created through the API, so it shouldn’t be so bad if i just use that to feed back into more markets.

I’ve got another 40 almost ready to go which represent seats with 2019 majorities under 1500 and a few other seats of interest, I’ll hold fire on those until I get confirmation on Tetraspace’s markets.

I now have Python code that creates the markets! I have created five markets as I tested the code, would anyone mind sense-checking them to make sure I haven’t done anything daft before I make any more?

@Fion I have butchered your wording to get these up, I hope that’s alright?

@Noit They look structured right, though the question names should have question marks at the end

@Noit This is amazing! I can't see any issues apart from Tetra's point about the question marks.

I've transferred you 1000 mana. I'm happy for you to keep this as a thank you for your efforts, or put it towards market creation if you like. Happy to contribute more mana in due course, if you work out what you need and if we work out who all would like to contribute.

@Noit I've just had another thought. Might it be worth including a link back to this market in the descriptions?

@Fion IMO no, people can find this through the UK politics topic if they’re interested, and it’ll probably also be a recommended market.

@Tetraspace I missed this point somehow, I will fix for my next deployment. Thank you!

I tried creating a dashboard for all these but quickly realised it’d be very unhelpful, so instead I’ve created a topic for these specific market types which is UK 2024 General Election Constituency Winning Party.

Also I reckon I should be fairly flush with mana after all the new year markets resolve, so I’ll commit here to spending at least half my balance on creating more of them through the API. Assuming I can get that working I may then put out a call for donations to get the rest created.

@Noit Ah, having a topic seems very handy! I don't really know how these work - do I need to add my markets to the topic?

Let me know if you get the API thing up and running. I'll be happy to contribute mana to that.

@Fion I’ve added a bunch but may have missed a few. On market creation, you can choose topics, just enter UK 2024 and it should autocomplete the rest.

Betting NO because I’m not expecting any support from Manifold and it’s a big time investment. I will be contributing at some point though.

To reiterate something I’ve said before in the Discord, I think this is a worthwhile thing to do because this is expected to be a serious swing to Labour. There are many seats that are normally safe that will be worth betting on because we don’t know just how big a swing this will be.

If there were any seats that are not worth creating markets for then they are probably very safe Labour seats.

Announcement: If anybody (including Manifold) automates this in some way, that counts for a YES resolution. Even if it's some slightly different interface, as long as there is a market for each constituency, that counts. I think this is within both the spirit and the letter of the original description, although I hadn't considered the possibility at that time.

(Since @palcu raised the possibility below, I thought I'd better make a ruling before anybody makes any further trades.)

I just stumbled across this market. @Noit, have you made any others? https://manifold.markets/Noit/which-party-will-win-brighton-pavil?r=Rmlvbg

@Fion That’s the only one in a format similar to yours, I do also have these in a yes/no format:

* https://manifold.markets/Noit/will-liberal-democrats-hold-somerst?r=Tm9pdA

* https://manifold.markets/Noit/will-liberal-democrats-hold-tiverto?r=Tm9pdA

* https://manifold.markets/Noit/will-labour-hold-selby-and-ainsty-a?r=Tm9pdA

* https://manifold.markets/Noit/will-labour-retain-rutherglen-and-h?r=Tm9pdA