What will be the polling error in Michigan in the 2024 US presidential election?

Michigan is considered one of the most important swing states in this election. According to Nate Silver's presidential election forecast, Michigan currently (as of September 18th) has a 16% chance of being the tipping point state, with Harris having a 80,1% chance of winning the election if she wins MI and Trump a 94.2% chance. According to the RCP average from August 23rd to September 16th, Harris currently leads by 1.0% in statewide polls. However, both in 2016 and 2020 RCP's state polling for Michigan was off (by 3.4% and 1.5% respectively) in favor of the Republican candidate.

This question is about the error in polling for the 2024 US presidential election in the state of Michigan. It concerns the margin between the Democrat and Republican candidates and not between specific candidates like Harris or Trump.

The error is the difference in margin between Democrats and Repuplicans according to RCP (https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/michigan/trump-vs-harris) data on November 4th, versus the final results according to the Wikipedia page of the election. An error in favor of a candidate means that the candidate does better than polls predict. For example if polls give Harris a 1% lead but Trump wins by 1.5%, this question resolves to [2%-3%) in Republican's favor. This is similar to https://manifold.markets/Weezing/what-will-be-the-polling-error-in-2 but only for the state of Michigan and not the whole of the US.

What will be the polling error in 2024 US presidential elections?

This market is looking to predict polling error leading up to the presidential election between Democratic and Republican candidates. It will resolve to the interval that includes the polling error. The error will be computed as difference between margin of Democrats (D vote share - R vote share) in the election minus margin of Democrats in polls. If the result is negative it is in favor of Republicans, if it's positive it is in favor of Democrats. For example if Democrats are polling up 3 points (margin +3), but lose the election by 2 (margin -2), the result is -5 (-2 - (+3)) and thus it will resolved to "4% or more in favor of Republicans", because the result was negative so Republican result in the election was better than their result in the polls. Polling data will be based on RCP (https://www.realclearpolling.com/) average for the presidential election on 4th of November 2024. Election data will be based on the Wikipedia page for the election. In the interval [3% - 4%), 3% is included, but 4% is not included in the interval. Polling in previous elections: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polling_for_United_States_presidential_elections 2020: 2.55% in favor of Republicans 2016: 1.91% in favor of Republicans 2012: 2.87% in favor of Democrats 2008: 3.73% in favor of Republicans 2004: 2.46% in favor of Republicans 2000: 2.51% in favor of Democrats

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