Open Answer: What will be the (absolute) Electoral College margin in the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Basic

21

Ṁ4998Dec 21

3%

15 or fewer (0-15)

0.3%

35 or fewer (0-35)

0%

38 or fewer (0-38)

0.4%

70 or fewer (0-70)

99.2%

71 or more (71+)

Feel free to add answers! I will interpret a bare number like "25" as "25 or fewer".

Answers will be resolved based on the actual Electoral College votes, not electors' pledges. Unfaithful electors may impact the outcome.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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@4fa Hey, I am pretty sure of this, but could you confirm that you are defining "margin" the same way that this polymarket market defines it, rather than something like "the number of points over 270".

@BoltonBailey Yes, the winning candidate's electoral votes minus the second place's electoral votes, which should be the same as in the polymarket link.

Sorry, wrong comment thread.

Related market about the (signed) difference: https://manifold.markets/mikeangelo/what-will-be-the-electoral-college?r=TUwxMmQx

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