What will be the margin of victory (in number of electors) for the 2024 US Presidential election?

Plus

35

Ṁ9667Nov 6

8%

35 or fewer (as close as Bush-Kerry in '04)

52%

74 or fewer (as close as Biden-Trump in '20)

91%

126 or fewer (as close as Obama-Romney in '12)

94%

192 or fewer (as close as Obama-McCain in '08)

The margin of victory is the difference between the number of electors received by the winner and the runner-up.

For example, in 2020, Biden won with 306 electors and Trump was second with 232 so the margin of victory was 306-232=74. Here's a table for elections since 2000:

More than one of the options can resolve "YES". This question concerns how many electors are won (and not how they subsequently vote), so we should be able to resolve fairly soon after the election.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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