Resolves based on the most recent national poll before the election released by each pollster. If the difference in popular vote percentage between Harris and Trump in the poll is more than 3% off from the final result, resolves false.
If a pollster has polls financed by different sponsors, I will average out the most recent poll from each (as long as they ended within 2 weeks of the most recent poll of that pollster, to avoid errors from older polls)
May resolve after the counting is complete and recounts are done if the results are unclear or too close.
1,000
3.00Currently reported votes show trump winning by 1.6%. Nate Silver's latest update projected trump winning by 1.5%. I'll resolve any off by at least 3.5% or correct within 2.5%
Taking LV with all candidates where possible, from 538, when applicable, and from pollsters website otherwise.
YouGov+yahoo +0
YouGov+Economist -3
YougGov+CBS -1
YouGov+CCES -4 (not clear if this is a sponsor or cooperating firm)
YouGov+Times of London -3
Average: -2.2 with CCES, -1.75 w/o
Quinnipiac +0
HarrisX+Forbes -1
HarrisX+Blockchain Association +0
Average: -0.5
CBS is a YouGov sponsor. I made a mistake when creating the market. the result was -1, as previously stated.
Emerson +0
Morning Consult -2
Ipsos+Reuters -1
Ipsos+ABC -3
Average: -2
Marist+NPR,PBS -4
FOX News: +2 (actually Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research with fox sponsor, minor mistake)
Siena: +1
Harvard-Harris: -1 (actually harvard sponsored by HarrisX/Harris. not clear what this means. falls outside 2 week range to be included in HarrisX polls anyway)
TIPP: +1
Suffolk: -1
Data for Progress: -3
Atlas Intel: +1
Rasmussen: +3
Rasmussen's final national poll is Trump +3, so this should be identical to the probability that Trump wins the popular vote.
Election 2024: Trump +3 Over Harris in Final Poll - Rasmussen Reports®