Resolves based on the most recent national poll before the election released by each pollster. If the difference in popular vote percentage between Harris and Trump in the poll is more than 3% off from the final result, resolves false.
If a pollster has polls financed by different sponsors, I will average out the most recent poll from each (as long as they ended within 2 weeks of the most recent poll of that pollster, to avoid errors from older polls)
May resolve after the counting is complete and recounts are done if the results are unclear or too close.
Rasmussen's final national poll is Trump +3, so this should be identical to the probability that Trump wins the popular vote.
Election 2024: Trump +3 Over Harris in Final Poll - Rasmussen Reports®