Which pollsters will get the 2024 Presidential Election right? (PV difference within 3%)
3
Ṁ415Nov 6
1D
1W
1M
ALL
67%
YouGov
63%
Quinnipiac
63%
HarrisX
63%
CBS News
63%
Emerson
63%
Morning Consult
63%
Ipsos
63%
Marist
63%
FOX News
63%
Siena
54%
Rasmussen Reports
50%
Harvard-Harris
50%
TIPP
50%
Suffolk
50%
Data for Progress
41%
Atlas Intel
Resolves based on the most recent national poll before the election released by each pollster. If the difference in popular vote percentage between Harris and Trump in the poll is more than 3% off from the final result, resolves false.
If a pollster has polls financed by different sponsors, I will average out the most recent poll from each (as long as they ended within 2 weeks of the most recent poll of that pollster, to avoid errors from older polls)
May resolve after the counting is complete and recounts are done if the results are unclear or too close.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
What will be the polling error in 2024 US presidential elections?
What will be the polling error in Pennsylvania in the 2024 US presidential election?
What will be the polling error in Wisconsin in the 2024 US presidential election?
Will 538 polling predict the correct winner of the presidential election?
66% chance
What will be the polling error in Michigan in the 2024 US presidential election?
Which of the following forecasts will correctly predict the winner of the 2024 presidential election on the day before?
Which of the following forecasts will correctly predict the winner of the 2024 presidential election on October 1st?
Will The Keys to the White House correctly predict the 2024 election?
55% chance
Will 538 correctly predict the winner of the 2024 presidential election?
67% chance
Will Manifold or FiveThirtyEight be more confident about the actual winner of the 2024 US presidential election?