
Which pollsters will get the 2024 Presidential Election right? (PV difference within 3%)
5
1.6kṀ470resolved Dec 2
Resolved
YESQuinnipiac
Resolved
YESHarrisX
Resolved
YESCBS News
Resolved
YESEmerson
Resolved
YESRasmussen Reports
Resolved
YESFOX News
Resolved
YESAtlas Intel
Resolved
YESSiena
Resolved
YESHarvard-Harris
Resolved
YESTIPP
Resolved
YESSuffolk
Resolved
NOYouGov
Resolved
NOMorning Consult
Resolved
NOIpsos
Resolved
NOMarist
Resolved
NOData for Progress
Resolves based on the most recent national poll before the election released by each pollster. If the difference in popular vote percentage between Harris and Trump in the poll is more than 3% off from the final result, resolves false.
If a pollster has polls financed by different sponsors, I will average out the most recent poll from each (as long as they ended within 2 weeks of the most recent poll of that pollster, to avoid errors from older polls)
May resolve after the counting is complete and recounts are done if the results are unclear or too close.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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