Which party will win the US Presidency in Michigan?
193
1.3k
2.5k
2025
51%
Democratic Party
49%
Republican Party
0%
Other

Resolves after the AP calls the race.

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Have these markets basically just become us flipping them for our preferred candidate?

@LiamRutherford *space shooting guy* always has been

@LiamRutherford Just because I'm holding YES on Trump doesn't mean I actually want him to win.

bought Ṁ2,000 Democratic Party NO

@SemioticRivalry I’ll do 40k more @ 50% if you want

opened a Ṁ20,000 Democratic Party YES at 50% order

@june i put up 20k

@SemioticRivalry

hahahahaha

If Biden has a 50% chance of winning Michigan, he has like a 20% chance of winning the election…

@benshindel Bumping this comment lol

bought Ṁ100 Democratic Party YES

How is Michigan ranked as less Democratic than Wisconsin? It's definitely the bluer of the two states.

@PlasmaBallin It has a lot of Muslims relative to Wisconsin, to whom Biden is unpopular because of the Israel-Gaza conflict.

@adele I guess, but what are they going to do, vote for the guy who tried to ban Muslims from entering the country instead? I can buy that some of them will sit out, which will certainly hurt Biden, but the overall percentage of Muslims in Michigan, even though it's larger than most other states, is still very small. Biden won by a larger margin in 2020 than the entire proportion of people in the state who are Muslims. The same can't be said of Wisconsin, which has a 1.2% Muslim population but was only won by Biden by 0.6%. And the difference between Michigan and Wisconsin's partisan leans is also larger than the percentage of Muslim Michiganders, according to 538: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-red-or-blue-is-your-state-your-congressional-district/

(This comes from before the 2022 midterms because I can't find more recent data, but I'm pretty sure the difference between their leans has expanded even more after the midterms).

@PlasmaBallin not vote

@PlasmaBallin last polls have Trump +5 and +6, it is not only Arab Americans; Trump has being gaining in male vote, especially Hispanic and Black. Maybe it's not that this market needs correcting (if anything I think it should be lower for dems) but that Wisconsin's market also needs to be corrected

bought Ṁ250 Republican Party YES

@egroj it looks like on polls it is slightly less advantage for Trump in Wisconsin than Michigan, but I corrected that market too. Also it was very cheap to move that market, which shows that not a lot of people are betting there.

@PlasmaBallin There was nothing like a "Muslim ban" and the country list was from the Obama administration:

The seven Muslim-majority countries targeted in President Trump’s executive order on immigration were initially identified as “countries of concern” under the Obama administration.

https://www.cnn.com/2017/01/29/politics/how-the-trump-administration-chose-the-7-countries/index.html

Though perhaps your point is that many people believe that Trump instituted a "Muslim ban" thanks, in great part, to misinformed posts on the internet.

bought Ṁ100 Democratic Party YES

@AlQuinn Yeah, definitely due to internet posts and not because he called for a "total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States"

@TiredCliche You forgot to include, at the very least, elipses to indicate you were truncating that statement. In full, it is:

"a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States until our country's representatives can figure out what is going on."

Secondly, you are not stating the context. This was said in 2015 when Trump was a candidate as a reaction to the terrorist mass shooting in San Bernardino, CA. Taking the quote in its full context, it's clear Trump was proposing a temporary ban on Muslims pending investigation of a specific incident.

Was this campaign rhetoric by candidate Trump? Well we have 4 years of a Trump presidency to see if he tried to "ban all Muslims ". Did he try to do this? I'm not aware of any such thing, and those arguing he tried always seem to point to the pseudo-muslim ban described by the CNN article.

@AlQuinn lol, the bans were in effect the entire 4 years, the third executive order was upheld by SCOTUS, and finally lifted when Biden took over.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_13769

@ScottSupak I know that. But it wasn't a "Muslim ban".

@AlQuinn Sure it was. Muslims were banned from entry from countries where Trump didn't have any business ties.

lol this is long overdue and shows the right sort of initiative; the smart people have known that UNRWA is terrorist organization for a long time:

https://www.state.gov/statement-on-unrwa-allegations/

Of course, I'm against all US foreign governmental aid anywhere, so am biased. But this isn't going to help placate the Democrat base in Michigan!

@AlQuinn 2020 Trump got 48%, and Arab Americans are 2% of the population in Michigan. I don't see any of them showing up to vote for Biden this time. In fact, I don't understand why this market is so sure that Biden will take Michigan again.

@egroj well it has dropped a bunch since I bought in. I think it's now fairly priced given the amount of time to the election.

@AlQuinn that is partly because I keep bidding Republican up 😃 (and for the record it doesn't relate at all with I want to happen)