This market is looking to predict polling error leading up to the presidential election between Democratic and Republican candidates.
It will resolve to the interval that includes the polling error. The error will be computed as difference between margin of Democrats (D vote share - R vote share) in the election minus margin of Democrats in polls. If the result is negative it is in favor of Republicans, if it's positive it is in favor of Democrats.
For example if Democrats are polling up 3 points (margin +3), but lose the election by 2 (margin -2), the result is -5 (-2 - (+3)) and thus it will resolved to "4% or more in favor of Republicans", because the result was negative so Republican result in the election was better than their result in the polls.
Polling data will be based on RCP (https://www.realclearpolling.com/) average for the presidential election on 4th of November 2024. Election data will be based on the Wikipedia page for the election.
In the interval [3% - 4%), 3% is included, but 4% is not included in the interval.
Polling in previous elections: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polling_for_United_States_presidential_elections
2020: 2.55% in favor of Republicans
2016: 1.91% in favor of Republicans
2012: 2.87% in favor of Democrats
2008: 3.73% in favor of Republicans
2004: 2.46% in favor of Republicans
2000: 2.51% in favor of Democrats
As a heads up for traders in this market, I made a similar but different market here (using Nate Silver’s polling average instead of RCP) if anyone wishes to trade/arbitrage: https://manifold.markets/WilliamEden/what-will-the-polling-miss-be-for-t
Yea, that's just an example of the syntax. It's a semi-closed interval (so anything between 3 and 4, except 4)