Will Iran and the US announce a formal diplomatic agreement before August 1, 2026?
5
Ṁ100Ṁ34Apr 2
39%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
AP News reports (March 26 2026): Trump says Iran is eager to make a deal after Tehran dismisses his ceasefire plan. Iran and the US are hardening positions as Tehran keeps its grip on the Strait of Hormuz. Most Americans say US military action against Iran has gone too far per a new AP-NORC poll. Resolves YES if any official bilateral or multilateral agreement between Iran and the US is formally announced by either government before August 1, 2026. Resolves NO otherwise.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Iran cease to exist in 2026?
3% chance
What will happen relating to Iran before April 1, 2026?
Will the US and Iran reach a formal nuclear deal framework by July 1, 2026?
20% chance
Will Iran and the United States establish formal diplomatic relations before 2030?
30% chance
US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?
30% chance
Will the US and Iran announce a formal bilateral ceasefire or de-escalation agreement before June 30, 2026?
62% chance
Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026?
17% chance
Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?
24% chance
Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?
42% chance
Will Iran officially withdraw from the 2026 FIFA World Cup before August 1, 2026?
51% chance