Will Trump publicly disparage Musk within a year of the election?

Plus

496

Ṁ85k

2025

44%

chance

ALL

Within a year of the election, will Trump publicly disparage Elon Musk?

This could be for any reason, provoked or otherwise. Things like belittling nicknames and personal insults would count, or "I never liked him anyway" type statements.

As this might be somewhat subjective, I won't trade.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

26 Comments

509 Holders

851 Trades

Sort by:

This market's volatility can be exploited since I don't think Trump will publicly disparage Elon before he's inaugurated and the changes in this market are mostly noise rather than signal.

Just buy Yes at 40% and sell at 60%

@ChinmayTheMathGuy wouldnt some sell limits be fucking amazing for this 😭

bought Ṁ500 NO

Notice how Elon is positioned towards the edge of the frame (indicating that Trump plans to push him out of his life)

Buy Yes everyone

Left-leaning media is going to push this narrative as hard and far as they can, far beyond reality, and I suspect this market is way overpricing the probability this will happen because of that.

Trump is not irrational, and he has massive benefits from siding with Musk. It's plausibile that Musk buying X was a necessary condition for Trump to win this election, and X remains the most influential Trump-aligned news platform. Breaking up with Musk could mean ceding back the control of the narrative to traditional media and left-aligned social networks.

@RicardoMeneghin 😍

Odds should be way lower imo

Trump needs Elon (& Elon-adjacent SV money) for the Midterms
Trump’s proposed appointments signal a shift away from traditional GOPers toward a coalition of ex-Democrats & anti-establishment types (RFK, Tulsi, Joe Rogan, Vivek, Gaetz etc) . Elon is integral to this strategy imo
Elon understands power and will seek to make himself as irreplaceable as possible to maximise the odds he can carry out his own agenda (faster launch approvals, deregulation, mars, AGI etc)

bought Ṁ50 YES at 50%

opened a Ṁ10,000 NO at 60% order

@elf That's incorrect. MSNBC reports that Musk is annoying Trump's team and won't go away. Buy YES

bought Ṁ2,500 NO

@skibidist 😆

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 58% order

@elf but the base rate for trump having falling outs with his inner circle is pretty high (kelly, bannon, cohen, and most of his old cabinet)

@skibidist Of course they are. They want to undermine their relationship.

@RicardoMeneghin CNN reports that Trump won't tolerate the decreased efficiency of government due to Musk's initiatives. How do you answer that?

@JonathanRay Correct me if I’m wrong but I think the majority of his fallouts came from traditional GOPers & DC insider types who were at odds with his vision. Both Elon & Trump seem more aligned given they’re outsiders in favor of reform.

I think Elon’s wealth, geopolitical significance (starlink + starshield ) , cultural influence (celebrity + ownership of X) make him categorically different than any of Trump’s previous allies

They will have a falling-out over this launch

after getting spanked at the ballot box, liberals have been reduced to voyeurism and hoping Trump and Elon break up. sad!

https://newrepublic.com/post/188501/elon-musk-annoying-trump-team?11162024

reposted

I am imagining how the conversations and interactions between these 2 are and it is making me hee-haw and giggling a little bit. Trump is the old school and this other guy is the immature little boy, like a son with no proper upbringing like the Trump family values (I know, I know, be you are knowing what I mean - suit, tie, no elbows on table, etc. like this). Presidency has not even starting yet, this guy really thinks he owns the presidency, Trump is going to tire with him soon! Elon just loaded with the cash, Trump needs it and owes him some action, but Elon is in the Ketamine induced daze, high as the kite. Probably needs the help but will not be getting it from yes men around. It is tragic? No. It is the meme!!!