Within a year of the election, will Trump publicly disparage Elon Musk?
This could be for any reason, provoked or otherwise. Things like belittling nicknames and personal insults would count, or "I never liked him anyway" type statements.
As this might be somewhat subjective, I won't trade.
Update 2025-05-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarified that for a statement to count as disparagement, it should be clearly bullying or belittling Musk specifically. An ambiguous statement (e.g., an anecdote about "a fat person" rather than a direct insult to Musk about his weight) may not count if:
It appears primarily intended to support a policy rather than to personally attack or distance from Musk.
It is accompanied by simultaneous positive statements about Musk.
1,000People are also trading
He just personally insulted him for being fat (I think)
@EBITDA Kinda? But it seems pretty unclear and he's also busy calling him a "brilliant businessman" and such. I watch that and I see an anecdote about a fat person, not bullying or belittling someone for being fat. It also doesn't sound like Trump is trying to distance himself, he's using the anecdote to support a policy of his own.
What's the case for Yes based on this quote?
@EvanDaniel after reading the inital comment, then going on to watch the video, my inital response was, "how the heck does one think this would be sufficient to resolve the question?". So your response is slightly worrying in that you seem to be tentatively considering it...
Am I missing something here, either in your response or in the resolution criteria?
This question is (scarily) nearly at the halfway point. Has anyone gotten more bullish on this resolving to "Yes" in the based on the past 172 days? If so, why?
@vitamind I think Elon Musk is withdrawing from politics. Trump is pretty erratic, I'd give him decent odds of disparaging anyone who's not an active sycophant.
@SaiVazquez I don't know. I think it will happen within the year, though, at most by the end of midterms. All it takes is one big blowup. Trump has had a falling out with so many of his formerly core people over the years that it feels inevitable.
Scoop: Musk vs. Bessent dispute erupted into West Wing shouting match
https://www.axios.com/2025/04/23/musk-bessent-trump-white-house-irs
@SoullessScythe That can't be used to justify a 50/50 split. What if it was two years instead of one? You have to model it as something like an exponential distribution where on any given day there's some small probability Musk is fired. Then the question is how long do you think he holds on for?
DOGE / Elon doing even more work for Trump admin post alleged tariff drama
Elon + Trump also sitting next to each other at the UFC
Just under 7 months left
President Donald Trump on Wednesday ordered Elon Musk’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency to investigate Navy and Coast Guard shipbuilding, giving the controversial group wide leverage to tackle some of the military’s most expensive — and troubled — projects.
Trump, in a Wednesday executive order, said DOGE will begin a review of shipbuilding within three months, “to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of these processes.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/09/shipbuilding-doge-executive-order-00283055
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/elon-musk-trump-doge-destruction-1235314218/
Musk has gnawed at the patience of an array of high-ranking administration officials, to the point that — according to this official and two others - Trump lieutenants have walked out of meetings and earnestly asked one another if they thought Musk was high. Administration officials joked to one another about subjecting Musk to mandatory drug testing, which Musk himself has said would be a "great idea" for federal employees. (A lawyer for Musk has said he's "regularly and randomly drug-tested at SpaceX and has never failed a test.")
"Talking to the guy is sometimes like listening to really rusty nails on a chalkboard," says the senior Trump administration official, who adds that Musk is not much of a team player, either. "He's just the most irritating person I've ever had to deal with, and that is saying something."
55 mins ago: ELON MUSK MADE DIRECT APPEALS TO TRUMP TO REVERSE TARIFFS PER WASHINGTON POST. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/04/07/musk-trump-tariffs/
Trump has already placed a lot of reputational stock in his support of Musk (enabling DOGE, Special Advisor status, hosting him in the Oval Office, publicly supporting Tesla...). With Musk's money and Trump's political power, their relationship is mutually beneficial and I don't see either one disparaging the other this early in the new administration.
Personally I think if he leaves soon without it happening the probability becomes much much less likely: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/04/02/trump-musk-leaving-political-liability-00265784
@TimothyBandors "The president is pleased with Elon Musk, but the decision comes as the tech mogul increasingly looks like a political liability." I'll be the first to say I will be shocked if this resolves NO but its looking like its headed that way.