Will SpaceX conduct at least half of all successful orbital launches in 2024?
21
1kแน14kresolved Jan 1
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
In 2022, there were 178 successful orbital launches; SpaceX's Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets accounted for 61 of them, or 34% of successful launches.
In 2023, Falcon rockets accounted for 96 out of 211, or 45%.
Will SpaceX be responsible for over half of successful orbital launches in 2024?
This includes Falcon and Starship (and in theory other SpaceX rockets), and only counts successes. Resolution will be based on the Wikipedia counts as of ~ 2025-01-03, assuming they appear up to date and not in dispute. Resolution will be delayed if required.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000๐ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน198 | |
| 2 | แน154 | |
| 3 | แน44 | |
| 4 | แน16 | |
| 5 | แน14 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will there be four or more SpaceX Starship launches in the second half of 2025?
31% chance
Will SpaceX launch a reused Super Heavy rocket booster successfully by the end of 2025?
12% chance
๐ Will SpaceX Achieve 150 Successful Launches In 2025?
68% chance
๐ Will SpaceX Achieve 100 Successful Launches In 2025?
99% chance
๐ Will SpaceX Achieve 120 Successful Launches In 2025?
96% chance
Will SpaceX perform fewer launches in 2025 than 2024?
4% chance
๐ Will SpaceX Achieve 135 Successful Launches In 2025?
91% chance
Will SpaceX Achieve 100 Successful launches from Florida in 2025?
55% chance
Will SpaceX conduct >100 Starship launches in 2025?
1% chance
Will Falcon 9 family of rockets launch to orbit (successfully) more times in 2025 than in 2024?
95% chance