In 2022, there were 178 successful orbital launches; SpaceX's Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets accounted for 61 of them, or 34% of successful launches.
In 2023, Falcon rockets accounted for 96 out of 211, or 45%.
Will SpaceX be responsible for over half of successful orbital launches in 2024?
This includes Falcon and Starship (and in theory other SpaceX rockets), and only counts successes. Resolution will be based on the Wikipedia counts as of ~ 2025-01-03, assuming they appear up to date and not in dispute. Resolution will be delayed if required.
1,000๐ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน198 | |
| 2 | แน154 | |
| 3 | แน44 | |
| 4 | แน16 | |
| 5 | แน14 |
132 Falcon9
-1 failed
+2 Falcon heavy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches#2024
SpaceX = 133
Total https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_in_spaceflight
261
-6 failed
255
133 is more than half of 255
@EvanDaniel
Orbital launches in 2024 to Dec 27 is 257 less 6 failures plus 2 so far on Dec 29th utc = 253
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_in_spaceflight
Planned non SpaceX launches PSLV = 1
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/past/?search=
SpaceX successful orbital launches so far 132
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches#2024
One more planned but assume worst and it doesn't happens in 2024 or fails.
11 more non SpaceX orbital launches, for which we have no scheduled dates in 2024, in order to reach 265 so that SpaceX launches might be less than 50% is clearly not happening:
USA, Europe, Australia, Japan, India we would know of plans.
Russia & China very rare not to know about launches in advance - don't want confusion over potential ICBM attack launches - but 1 or 2 might be conceivable
Iran, N Korea 1 or 2 might be possible but ~10, I doubt there are enough launch pads capable of orbital launches even if we disregard the weirdness of so many in less than 3 days.
SpaceX is narrowly meeting this target, accounting for 32 of 62 so far.