Will someone deliver 4 kiwis to my doorstep?
106
1kṀ9919
resolved Dec 11
Resolved
YES
13

My doorstep, in good condition, I actually satisfactorily receive them, before (approximately) market close.

I'll place a single no bet at question creation, and won't bet after that.

  • Update 2025-12-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Alternative delivery methods beyond Amazon are possible. Creator is open to adding other items to the wishlist if suggested.

  • Update 2025-12-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator commits to not taking actions to substantially cause kiwi delivery, specifically:

    • No contractual agreements, promises, or financial transactions related to kiwi delivery

    • No new trades or limits (existing limit will remain)

    • No subsidizing the market

    • No buying kiwis (store, Instacart, or from other Manifold users)

    • No promises to repay anyone

    • No bribes relevant to this market

Creator may still promote the market (e.g., posting on Twitter) or call attention to it.

  • Update 2025-12-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Multiple deliveries are acceptable - kiwis do not need to arrive in a single delivery. However, only whole and intact kiwis will be counted toward the total of 4 (fractional kiwis will not count).

  • Update 2025-12-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market refers to fruit (kiwifruit), not kiwi birds.

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https://manifold.markets/MaxE/will-someone-deliver-4-kiwis-to-my-El0cLUuP6E?r=TWF4RQ
This market was too easy

How

Does anybody want to claim responsibility?

@Quroe "That's four small kiwis for a man." These indelible words I spoke as my delivery fell upon his doorstep.

Prediction markets have officially replaced buying stuff

@nikki This will revolutionize the economy.

Memes made manifest.

@Quroe looks loke those are not Kiwis, but kiwi fruits

@EvanDaniel I’m surprised no one bet it up to 100% before you resolved it. It was only at 72%.

@EvanDaniel Please save the produce stickers on a post-it note or something.

@NzJack0n This means it didn't really replace buying things because the person who did this didn't make a profit from it.

@notrealDonaldTrump More research is needed?

@Quroe

@EvanDaniel There is fur on them, maybe they are growing into new kiwis. @MrBasil returns.

@EvanDaniel @TheAllMemeingEye Shall we induct it into the pantheon? https://manifold.markets/topic/certified-manifold-artifacts?r=UXVyb2U

Certified Manifold Artifacts
Certified Manifold Artifacts odds on Manifold

@NzJack0n do you remember 2 pizzas for 20000 bitcoins?

@nowayitsfree I’ve heard of it

@Eliza

already - this page is full of Kiwis (Jack is NewZealander)

Birds or fruit?

@JimAusman I am assuming it will be fruit :)

@EvanDaniel maybe somebody already delivered birds and they flew off. How will we know?

@EvanDaniel does 2 fruits, 1 bird, and 1 new zealander count, or must they all be of the same type?

@TheAllMemeingEye this is even more ambiguous than that "tits vs ass" market was.

@AlexanderTheGreater the objectively correct answer:

tits (body part) > ass (animal) > tits (animal) > ass (body part)

fight me /s

@AlexanderTheGreater Kiwis are flightless, so we can rule that out

@AlexanderTheGreater Kiwis are humans. Kiwi birds are forest-livers, kiwi fruits are eatable

@nowayitsfree it’s getting annoying how you guys play word games when you lose

@NzJack0n I thought everyone here was just having a good time

@NzJack0n I won, not lost"

@nowayitsfree congrats💪

@NzJack0n we need to put these 4 New Zealanders into the manifold artifacts gallery

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