Will someone deliver 4 kiwis to my doorstep?
5
1kแน€573
Dec 15
14%
chance

My doorstep, in good condition, I actually satisfactorily receive them, before (approximately) market close.

I'll place a single no bet at question creation, and won't bet after that.

Get
แน€1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

do you really wish 4 NewZealanders visit you?

@Quroe if she calls the police, we have the evidence of invitation..

In the next iteration of this market you will need to come up with some way to expedite the delivery by paying more if they come sooner. Maybe the multiple choice (threshold?) variant with a separate order on each day.

@Eliza resolves to 100% if on day 1, lower for later days?

But for this one I was just trying to literally do the tweet.

@EvanDaniel There might not be another one if you die of hunger due to not getting any Kiwis from your play money online prediction market.

Plot twist. Evan buys the kiwis themself and resolves the market YES, reabsorbing all of the incorrectly allocated liquidity.

@Quroe price gets too high. I break my lease and immediately move to a new apartment, thus thwarting delivery and winning the mispriced liquidity.

We have to find your address, eh?

@Quroe You might be able to hunt it down. Or you could ask! Or find a manifold user who knows it and collaborate.

@EvanDaniel Alternate route to victory: send 4 kiwis to every doorstep. I just need to be right once.

@Quroe we can also solve this via Amazon wishlist, I think?

https://www.amazon.com/hz/wishlist/ls/2AWYM444HO5RB?ref_=wl_share

@EvanDaniel According to the site it might not come in time!

@Eliza I love the outcome where someone buys the Kiwis, bets Yes, they are delivered late and it resolves No.

We could gig-work delivery it, perhaps?

@Eliza act fast, pay for expedited shipping?

@EvanDaniel I must not understand how to do this, it is trying to deliver it to me instead. I'm just going to buy more No shares!

@Eliza I think I have set things up correctly; Amazon help send to suggest it should work.

ยฉ Manifold Markets, Inc.โ€ขTermsโ€ขPrivacy