Will Manifold users default(*) on loans I've given out before 2025-02-01?
Any default
>= 10% of mana owed ever in default
Fraction of mana owed ever in default

I've given out a few loans so far and intend to give out more. Will any of those loans be badly in default before 2025-02-01?

"Non-trivial": If someone is a little late but repays promptly on request, I'm not counting it. At the moment: > 7 days past payment due will be counted as in default, and I will attempt to contact folks and request payment before that. For short term loans, if repayment is late I expect the debtor to pay an appropriate late-payment fee / additional interest / both. My personal question is less "will anyone be late ever" and more "will I get my mana back". This definition is up to my judgment and slightly flexible. Renegotiated terms don't count for this unless I take a haircut on the repayment. (Individual options in this market might ignore this criteria and will be clearly indicated in option text + comments.)

Loans included: I might not bother including small loans, but anything >= M1k will be counted. Only loans due before 2024-02-01 will be included. For loans with payments due both before and after, only the payments due before will be included.

Time zones: whatever the loan is specified in. Defaults to Anywhere on Earth.

"Fraction of mana owed ever in default": resolves PROB to the fraction of mana owed to me that is ever in default.

">= 10% of mana owed ever in default": evaluated at any time, as a fraction of all loans owed to me that are included in this market, including already-paid loans.

Basically this is intended to assess whether I'm giving out risky loans. I'll also use this market as a notepad to track loans I've made. All loans will be conducted by clearly-labeled managrams. Payment terms are not guaranteed to be public, but currently I expect they will be.

I'm pretty sure that me betting in this market creates a weird mess. I'm not currently planning to, but that's not a promise.

Current loans:

  • @Tumbles: M13500 by 2025-01-07.

  • Tumbles: Variable, by 2024-07-08. It won't be in default before we know the exact variable rate, so the mana in default would be easy to calculate when required. For purposes of total mana loaned, will be calculated based on the APR evaluated at the time in question, not the APR forecast.

  • Tumbles: M5000 for nuclear risk markets, by market close or position exit (expected 2025-01-05 or so).

  • @TonyPepperoni M5k for nuclear risk markets, as above.

  • @Bohaska M1k principle, monthly coupon payments of 5% (M50), up to 6 months, due on first of month, balloon payment at end, subject to renegotiation on term.

  • @SavioMak M1020 due by 2024-01-16.

Get แน€600 play money
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Better market description aesthetics suggestions:

  • You can arrange the "Current loans" section by making it a heading by using the "#" or "##" symbols before it

  • Make it a bullet list of the currently outgoing loans by using the "-" before each line