This market will forecast the interest rate for the @Tumbles Financial Complex.

Included are all loans meeting these criteria:

• Tumbles is the debtor

• At least M1k

• At least 14 day term

• Due after market creation and by EoD 2024-01-31 AoE

• Fixed non-zero interest rate, defined payment schedule, or similar defined at loan origination

• Terms are public

• No weird restrictions on use or whatever

For each loan, the APR will be calculated. Loan duration will be calculated as a whole number of days. The final average APR will be computed by weighting the loans by duration * size of principle. That will then be used to resolve the individual derivative markets in the question group. See this spreadsheet for the technique being used. (Spreadsheet is not authoritative and may contain bugs or typos or not be up to date. Ask questions or something before relying on it. I have not tried to ensure the dates are exact.) I will post a tentative resolution shortly after market close and invite folks to verify the math before resolving.

As of question creation, the current APR value is 60.33%.

APR is calculated using a definition of "year" as 365 days but counting actual loan terms as actual number of days (inclusive of Feb 29th). This is weird and not ideal. For sake of not changing the math after market creation I'm just going to acknowledge it and leave it as is.

Unless otherwise specified, options refer to the APR calculated shortly after this market closes (2025-02-02). If earlier dates are specified, the same set of loans will be included, but only those in existence as of the date will be counted (whether the option resolves exactly on time or late).

"APR (linear)" option: The APR computed will be rounded to the nearest whole percent; it will resolve PROB to that number. Numbers > 100 resolve to 100, < 0 resolve to 0.

">= 50" and similar: resolves True if the APR is above the indicated number. Exact number, not rounded.

Loan list will be my best effort to include all such loans. Currently that means all loans listed here: /Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba , with my best attempt to determine dates based on Managram history. All publicly visible loans to Tumbles are included regardless of how the record keeping is done and whether they're on that market or not.

I'll add more options as they look interesting.

[This question is in draft mode; I'll fix typos or make minor tweaks to the methodology if I think that's appropriate. I intend to remove this draft notice in the next couple days and lock in the methodology. Feel free to remind me if I forget and this note is still here.]