Amazon has recently contracted for three SpaceX Falcon 9 launches for their Kuiper program. The Kuiper satellite Internet constellation competes directly with SpaceX's Starlink program, and Amazon had previously been contracting with other launch providers.

Presumably a launch failure on one of these launches would create an unusual amount of industry drama. Will there be such a failure?

Any loss of payload, or delivery to other than a nominal orbit, will be counted as a failure here. This includes pre-launch operations (such as the AMOS-6 loss).