Which countries will detonate a nuclear weapon offensively in 2025?
Plus
14
Ṁ98442026
11%
United States
6%
Russia
1.7%
United Kingdom
6%
France
6%
China
8%
India
13%
Pakistan
7%
North Korea
8%
Israel
10%
Iran
8%
[Other country not listed above]
10%
[Non-state actor]
5%
[Unattributed as of close time]
Tests, accidental detonations, and peaceful nuclear explosions are not included. During 2025, UTC time.
The weapon must detonate to be included.
2024 version: /EvanDaniel/which-countries-will-detonate-a-nuc
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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The intent here is that this list is exhaustive; if there is an offensive nuclear detonation, at least one of the categories can resolve positively. That is: "country" and "non-state actor" include all possible actors; between that and "unattributed", something can resolve positively.
Did I miss anything there? Any edge cases worth worrying about?
opened a Ṁ5 Russia YES at 1.0% order
Extraterrestrial Aliens.
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