Russian vehicle shot down in NATO airspace by EOY 2025?

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resolved Jan 1

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YES

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Will any Russian aerial vehicle be shot down within NATO airspace this year?

Includes crewed aircraft ( /EvanDaniel/russian-crewed-aircraft-shot-down-i ), drones, missiles, helicopters, artillery shells, balloons, or anything else aerial.

Establishing proof of the airspace violation might be hard. Outcome will be based on a consensus of credible reporting combined with NATO statements, provided they appear to be basically plausible. (The 2015 Turkey incident would count under this rule, as would the 2025 Poland one.) Local time zone. After question creation.

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https://www.euronews.com/2025/12/20/turkey-warns-russia-and-ukraine-over-downed-drones-in-black-sea

Turkey shot down a probably russian drone here, would this count?

@Qoiuoiuoiu it might, thank you! I'll do a little more reading, I didn't find this incident in my initial searching.

@Qoiuoiuoiu @traders any reason this shouldn't count?

@EvanDaniel The description does include drones. I'd say it counts.

bought Ṁ50 YES

What does "Russian" entail? Drone operated by Russian "illegals" count?

Germany still won't give ukraine a taurus 🤦

https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-germany-give-a-taurus-missile

Maybe they're waiting until there's a Russian drone attack in Germany

@Dulaman you can't be certain Putin will attack till Russian troops are in Berlin. So better do nothing till then. Situation might escalate otherwise.