Will any Russian aerial vehicle be shot down within NATO airspace this year?
Includes crewed aircraft ( /EvanDaniel/russian-crewed-aircraft-shot-down-i ), drones, missiles, helicopters, artillery shells, balloons, or anything else aerial.
Establishing proof of the airspace violation might be hard. Outcome will be based on a consensus of credible reporting combined with NATO statements, provided they appear to be basically plausible. (The 2015 Turkey incident would count under this rule, as would the 2025 Poland one.) Local time zone. After question creation.
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Germany still won't give ukraine a taurus 🤦
https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-germany-give-a-taurus-missile
@Dulaman you can't be certain Putin will attack till Russian troops are in Berlin. So better do nothing till then. Situation might escalate otherwise.