On 2025-09-19, three MiG-31 aircraft were reported to have violated Estonian airspace. They were escorted out of NATO airspace.
On 2015-11-24, a Russian SU-24 was shot down within NATO airspace by Turkey.
Will a Russian aircraft (crewed, not a drone) be shot down within 6 months of this recent incident?
Establishing proof of the airspace violation might be hard. Outcome will be based on a consensus of credible reporting combined with NATO statements, provided they appear to be basically plausible. (The 2015 incident would count under this rule.) Local time zone.
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@Eliza Still a no. We should probably have a market on a repeat of the Poland incident or similar escalation as well, but my general impression is that drone shootdowns are less of a big deal, so I made the market this way.