Russian crewed aircraft shot down in NATO airspace by 2026-03-19?
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On 2025-09-19, three MiG-31 aircraft were reported to have violated Estonian airspace. They were escorted out of NATO airspace.
On 2015-11-24, a Russian SU-24 was shot down within NATO airspace by Turkey.
Will a Russian aircraft (crewed, not a drone) be shot down within 6 months of this recent incident?
Establishing proof of the airspace violation might be hard. Outcome will be based on a consensus of credible reporting combined with NATO statements, provided they appear to be basically plausible. (The 2015 incident would count under this rule.) Local time zone.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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