When will be the first shot down of a Russian plane by a nato country?
3
125Ṁ217
2028
50%
Not before 2029
29%
2026
29%
2028
28%
2027
11%
2025

This market will conclude yes for a corresponding year if a Russian plane is shot down by a nato country.

If this happens the market will close and all the remaining options will conclude NO.

At the end of each year if this hasn't happened the question for that year will conclude NO.

At jan 1 2029 if it hasn't happened the market will close and the "not before 2029" option will conclude YES.

Its only for the first plane.

If more planes are shot down this market will be closed as one has already been shot down.

Drones don't count.

It has to have a pilot.

As an example, the Russian plane that Turkey shot down in 2015.

The country has to be in nato. Doesn't count if it is an ally of nato or ally of some nato member.

The country has to be in nato in the moment of the interception.

The plane has to be operated by the Russian military and has to belong to the Russian military. It can not be of some russia ally as belarus, north korea etc.

If the plane is Russian(Following the criteria we have established) but the pilot isn't the market will conclude YES.

If some nato country tries to shot down a russian plane and fails, doesn't count it has to be actually shot down.

I may extend more options of more years.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy