Russian vehicle shot down in NATO airspace by EOY 2025?

Question

Will any Russian aerial vehicle be shot down within NATO airspace this year?

Includes crewed aircraft ( @/EvanDaniel/russian-crewed-aircraft-shot-down-i ), drones, missiles, helicopters, artillery shells, balloons, or anything else aerial.

Establishing proof of the airspace violation might be hard. Outcome will be based on a consensus of credible reporting combined with NATO statements, provided they appear to be basically plausible. (The 2015 Turkey incident would count under this rule, as would the 2025 Poland one.) Local time zone. After question creation.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Jan 1, 2026 by Manifold Markets prediction market.