Is Manifold Monitoring the Situation in 2026? [ROUND 2]

MANIFOLD

Ṁ1kṀ949

Dec 31

56%

chance

ALL

Same rules as last time, repeated here for convenience:

/EvanDaniel/is-manifold-monitoring-the-situatio

Covering Situations in 2026 that are not the late February Hegseth / Anthropic fight.

If Things Happening causes mildly popular markets to resolve, then clearly we were Monitoring the Situation with respect to those things.

Things Happening will include anything CRAZY:

/ItsMe/will-something-crazy-happen-monthly (does not need to be the event that resolves that month's market, just needs to count under the same definition)

Or anything Unanticipated that Happened, by this definition:

/EvanDaniel/will-nothing-unanticipated-happen-b-AnqQZ9SqtE

If it causes a market with at least 30 traders (counted prior to the event) to resolve, then it was adequately Monitored.

If all such events for the year were Monitored, this will resolve Yes; No otherwise.

Deadline may be extended if needed for events near the end of the year.

I will not bet in this market.

Update 2026-01-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Markets that count as "Monitoring" must be:
- Topical and normal-ish
- Ranked
- Not meta, self-referential, circular, or paradox-inducing
- Parlay markets are acceptable if they're about specific markets that would otherwise qualify

Duplicate markets created by others do not affect how this market resolves.

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bought Ṁ250 YES

@EvanDaniel good to resolve?

idk how this market works tbh

@prismatic Well it can't resolve Yes early, and I'm not sure what situation is unmonitored aside from the Anthropic / Hegseth stuff that resolved the prior version.

I’m reading this market description over and over and I have no clue what this means. Can you explain like I’m 5?

@bens If Manifold has markets created in advance, that forecast all the major events, this will resolve Yes. If something comes out of left field that we didn't anticipate, and then we scramble to make extremely popular markets to forecast the trajectory after the main event happens, resolves No. The previous instantiation resolved No because (as best I can tell) no one anticipated the Anthropic / Hegseth fight in sufficient detail to write a market that resolved in response to the fight. And now we have lots of markets trying to forecast the fallout, so clearly it mattered enough to worry about and we "should have" had some markets in advance.