Will something CRAZY happen? [Monthly Market]
10
12kṀ7610
Dec 31
26%
January
27%
February
32%
March
32%
April
34%
May
32%
June
32%
July
32%
August
32%
September
35%
October
32%
November
32%
December

For each month, the option resolves YES if, during that month, there is a Google search term which spikes like crazy. This is determined based on the following method:

  • On Google Trends, pick "Worldwide" and "Web Search".

  • Pick a search term that you want to check for craziness.

  • Pick "google" as the search term to compare to.

  • Look at the end-of-day scores for "google" and [term]. The [term] : google ratio is the craziness score (C).

  • If on one of the days, C(term, day) > 0.5, and there exists a day in the previous 30 days such that C(term, day) / C(term, past_day) > 5, then this term is indeed CRAZY, and the market resolves YES.

Important exception: scheduled events which are fully expected to trend ahead of time do not count as crazy, even if they meet the craziness criteria. This includes things like:

  • Olympics

  • World Cup

  • Big movie releases

  • U.S. presidential elections

Some events in recent years which did meet the craziness criteria are:

  • COVID-19 pandemic

  • January 6 capitol riots

  • Russian invasion of Ukraine

  • Will Smith slapping Chris Rock

  • Death of Queen Elizabeth II

  • Israel-Gaza war

  • Trump assassination attempt

  • Biden dropping out of election

  • Iran-Israel war

  • Charlie Kirk assassination

Prior to any month, I may modify the criteria to preserve the intent of the market, if for example, "Google" is no longer a popular search term. Due to the partially subjective criteria, I am not betting in this market.

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There are a lot of relatively obscure terms which meet the criteria all the time due to low sample size

@spiderduckpig can you give an example?

@ItsMe edited: nvm

Sometimes there are celebrity deaths which aren't that crazy, but they spike when they pass: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=rob%20reiner&date=today%201-m

@spiderduckpig you need to compare the search to google

@ItsMe should December have resolved yes for Rob Reiner?

The error 429 doesn’t seem significant compared to Google, I’m unsure on rob reiner though.

@Jack1 Charlie Kirk would count too I think

@spiderduckpig definitely, it’s listed as one that would have counted in the description

bought Ṁ500 YES

@Jack1 Oh lol I just skimmed that part

@ItsMe edit: nvm

@spiderduckpig worldwide, previous 30 days

@Jack1 https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2025-11-01%202025-11-30&q=%2Fm%2F0kfgvxd,google

Not sure why, but Youtube - Youtube channel spiked in November using a range of 30 days and Worldwide. I looked on their channel and couldn't find anything so it's probably not something pre-planned. I don't think they did a Youtube rewind or anything. Maybe a change to operationalization is that it also has to be something newsworthy. It could also be a data issue with the "topic" categories for Google trends.

@Jack1 Rob Reiner had a value of 44, and google was 90, so it was 2 points short of the threshold.

@spiderduckpig I'm only counting search terms, not topics

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