For each month, the option resolves YES if, during that month, there is a Google search term which spikes like crazy. This is determined based on the following method:
On Google Trends, pick "Worldwide" and "Web Search".
Pick a search term that you want to check for craziness.
Pick "google" as the search term to compare to.
Look at the end-of-day scores for "google" and [term]. The [term] : google ratio is the craziness score (C).
If on one of the days, C(term, day) > 0.5, and there exists a day in the previous 30 days such that C(term, day) / C(term, past_day) > 5, then this term is indeed CRAZY, and the market resolves YES.
Important exception: scheduled events which are fully expected to trend ahead of time do not count as crazy, even if they meet the craziness criteria. This includes things like:
Olympics
World Cup
Big movie releases
U.S. presidential elections
Some events in recent years which did meet the craziness criteria are:
COVID-19 pandemic
January 6 capitol riots
Russian invasion of Ukraine
Will Smith slapping Chris Rock
Death of Queen Elizabeth II
Israel-Gaza war
Trump assassination attempt
Biden dropping out of election
Iran-Israel war
Charlie Kirk assassination
Prior to any month, I may modify the criteria to preserve the intent of the market, if for example, "Google" is no longer a popular search term. Due to the partially subjective criteria, I am not betting in this market.
People are also trading
@ItsMe edited: nvm
Sometimes there are celebrity deaths which aren't that crazy, but they spike when they pass: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=rob%20reiner&date=today%201-m
@ItsMe should December have resolved yes for Rob Reiner?
The error 429 doesn’t seem significant compared to Google, I’m unsure on rob reiner though.
@Jack1 https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2025-11-01%202025-11-30&q=%2Fm%2F0kfgvxd,google
Not sure why, but Youtube - Youtube channel spiked in November using a range of 30 days and Worldwide. I looked on their channel and couldn't find anything so it's probably not something pre-planned. I don't think they did a Youtube rewind or anything. Maybe a change to operationalization is that it also has to be something newsworthy. It could also be a data issue with the "topic" categories for Google trends.