For each month, the option resolves YES if, during that month, there is a Google search term which spikes like crazy. This is determined based on the following method:
On Google Trends, pick "Worldwide" and "Web Search".
Pick a search term that you want to check for craziness.
Pick "google" as the search term to compare to.
Look at the end-of-day scores for "google" and [term]. The [term] : google ratio is the craziness score (C).
If on one of the days, C(term, day) > 0.5, and there exists a day in the previous 30 days such that C(term, day) / C(term, past_day) > 5, then this term is indeed CRAZY, and the market resolves YES.
Important exception: scheduled events which are fully expected to trend ahead of time do not count as crazy, even if they meet the craziness criteria. This includes things like:
Olympics
World Cup
Big movie releases
U.S. presidential elections
Some events in recent years which did meet the craziness criteria are:
COVID-19 pandemic
January 6 capitol riots
Russian invasion of Ukraine
Will Smith slapping Chris Rock
Death of Queen Elizabeth II
Israel-Gaza war
Trump assassination attempt
Biden dropping out of election
Iran-Israel war
Charlie Kirk assassination
Prior to any month, I may modify the criteria to preserve the intent of the market, if for example, "Google" is no longer a popular search term. Due to the partially subjective criteria, I am not betting in this market.
UPDATES:
Going forward, an event must end up having a Wikipedia article associated with it in order to qualify. The article must be about the same specific event as the Google Trends search term, according to my judgement. For example, the Wikipedia article on Will Smith is not specific enough to relate to the slap incident, but Chris Rock–Will Smith slapping incident is.
Once a search term becomes crazy, its history is "reset". That means for it to qualify again, its popularity must quintuple from since after it became crazy. That is, you cannot pick an old past_day to satisfy the quintupling requirement.
Resolutions
January: Capture of Nicolas Maduro
1,000People are also trading
Since I can't add more options to the market, I set up another market if you want to predict if there will be another crazy event in January. I updated the description to clarify how a search term which repeatedly trends would be handled.
@ItsMe, I was wondering if you could provide some clarification on the resolution criteria. If I understand correctly, for January 3rd (so far), C(Venezuela, Google) = 60/71 > .50. On January 2, we have C(Venezuela, Google) = 2/76. The ratio of the first to the second C values is 32.11. Is that correct? Thanks!
@dfish Yes this is correct. Just using "Venezuela" is fine. I have to wait until the end of the day to see what the final search score is, but as it stands it would resolve YES.
@djomla requires specific google search trends to resolve.
Decent chance it gets there in a day or two, but it's not a case of saying 'yeah that's wild'.
I think - "Venezuela Attack" - is going to qualify but I'm also not sure I've understood how to calculate the criteria correctly...
Edit - I was doing the wrong query, but I'm still pretty hopeful 'Venezuela' will get there once Americans wake up, given the current events...
@PaulBenjaminPhotographer Well I messed up the 'take profit' trade, but I think Maduro being captured and extradited to the US (if true) is a lock for being kinda cray...
Edit: nvm
@ItsMe edited: nvm
Sometimes there are celebrity deaths which aren't that crazy, but they spike when they pass: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=rob%20reiner&date=today%201-m
@ItsMe should December have resolved yes for Rob Reiner?
The error 429 doesn’t seem significant compared to Google, I’m unsure on rob reiner though.
@Jack1 https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2025-11-01%202025-11-30&q=%2Fm%2F0kfgvxd,google
Not sure why, but Youtube - Youtube channel spiked in November using a range of 30 days and Worldwide. I looked on their channel and couldn't find anything so it's probably not something pre-planned. I don't think they did a Youtube rewind or anything. Maybe a change to operationalization is that it also has to be something newsworthy. It could also be a data issue with the "topic" categories for Google trends.