Is Manifold Monitoring the Situation in 2026?

1kṀ1014

Dec 31

53%

chance

ALL

If Things Happening causes mildly popular markets to resolve, then clearly we were Monitoring the Situation with respect to those things.

Things Happening will include anything CRAZY:

/ItsMe/will-something-crazy-happen-monthly (does not need to be the event that resolves that month's market, just needs to count under the same definition)

Or anything Unanticipated that Happened, by this definition:

/EvanDaniel/will-nothing-unanticipated-happen-b-AnqQZ9SqtE

If it causes a market with at least 30 traders (counted prior to the event) to resolve, then it was adequately Monitored.

If all such events for the year were Monitored, this will resolve Yes; No otherwise.

Deadline may be extended if needed for events near the end of the year.

I will not bet in this market.

Market context

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will Manifold have automated resolutions before 2027?

75% chance

Will I be active on Manifold at the end of 2026?

68% chance

Will Manifold still be functioning by 2030?

88% chance

Will Manifold still be around in 2035? (resolves N/A at the end of 2026)

48% chance

Will Manifold "be around" in 20 years?

64% chance

Will Manifold be acquired by end of 2030?

62% chance

Will Manifold be acquired by end of 2040?

67% chance

Will Manifold Markets still be around by 2030?

94% chance

Manifold stats graph looks promising again before 2027?

51% chance

Will Manifold be acquired by PolyMarket by end of 2030?

Sort by:

Well, we didn't monitor it in January!

@realDonaldTrump I think we were:

/PrijwalNaidu/military-conflict-between-the-us-an-zCUNEhRUhc

@realDonaldTrump If you disagree, please tell me why and what you think we missed. Suggestions to clarify my criteria are absolutely welcome!

@EvanDaniel I do disagree, because the /ItsMe/will-something-crazy-happen-monthly resolved not to the pure military conflict (which happened in December '25) but to the actual capture of Maduro, where there was no popular market.

@realDonaldTrump I thought the search term it resolved to was just "Venezuela". And the Wikipedia article is titled "2026_United_States_strikes_in_Venezuela" which sounds a lot like "military conflict" to me.

@EvanDaniel

The creator said the capture was the resolution. You should modify the criteria to have the phrase entered under "Resolutions" to be semantically similar to the market title you want to resolve for, as judged by the top model for text on LMArena

@realDonaldTrump As best I can tell "Capture of Nicolas Maduro" is neither the Google Trends term in question nor the Wikipedia article in question. And it's the same event as the military conflict and strikes.

@realDonaldTrump

@EvanDaniel yeah obviously nobody's searching "capture of nicolas maduro" it's more like "maduro" or "maduro captured" or "trump capture" or "venezuela guy captured"

@realDonaldTrump Please stop expecting me to do your work for you; provide citations.

@EvanDaniel i'm not expecting citations, I'm just guessing

@realDonaldTrump does @ItsMe want to weigh in here?

@realDonaldTrump Please try to maintain a higher standard of discourse on my markets; less guessing, more citations, more analysis. It would take you ten seconds to check a proposed term. Please do that.