How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2033?
➕
Plus
7
Ṁ2536
2034
66%
>= 300
53%
>= 500
51%
>= 800
50%
>= 1300
45%
>= 2100
41%
>= 3400
34%
>= 5500
33%
>= 8900

This is an attempt to gauge whether Arizona will become uninhabitable due to climate change within the next decade, as predicted by this tweet:

Resolution will be based on my best estimate from credible reporting, Wikipedia articles, etc. If multiple credible sources are available, I'll resolve based on the geometric mean of available numbers.

I'll add more answers if trading prices indicate that's appropriate. Ditto creating more comparable questions for different dates.

See also:
/EvanDaniel/how-many-people-will-die-of-extreme-nunsfre4wz

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bought Ṁ50 >= 500 YES

I tried to look up predictions of whether 2033 will be an El Nino year, and the first thing that comes up is the "hypothetical weather wiki": https://hypotheticalweather.fandom.com/wiki/2033-2034_Very_Strong_El_Nino

The rule that if it exists, there's a wiki on it, has been exhausted, so now we have to make wikis on things that don't even exist.