Will at least 12% of the population of Phoenix, Arizona die of extreme heat in the 2030s ?

Roger Hallam has claimed "12 per cent of the population of Phoenix, Arizona will die of extreme heat in the 2030s." Market resolves yes if extreme heat is credibly the cause of "you can predict 180,000 deaths during the 2030s - ie., 12% of the population dies from heat during that decade." Will by default rely on medical examiner's office records used by Hallam to anchor his projection; I reserve the right to judge by my best guess if a heat event happens that kills so many that the medical examiner is overwhelmed or similar.

Caveat: in awful edge-case scenarios where Phoenix gets nuked or firebombed by aerial bombardment, that doesn't count as extreme heat, and I probably NA cancel this market out of sadness and disgust at the world.


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One thing that I wish people considered is not to define things in two ways.

I presume this question is asking whether

  • 180,000 people will die from the heat in Phoenix in the 2030s, regardless of the percentage of the city population that represents

and not

  • 12% of the population of Phoenix at some time during the 2030s will die from the heat

Is this correct?

Also, is this about just the city proper? Current boundaries of the metro area? Future boundaries? What if the area of Phoenix itself changes?

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