The Ministry for the Future Predictions: Will a Heatwave Kill More Than a Million around the world by 2040?
7
130Ṁ2692040
40%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Based on the horrifying open for The Ministry for the Future by Kim Stanley Robinson. Resolves Yes if a credible outlet reports >1 million deaths from heat exhaustion in a single heatwave.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
The Ministry for the Future Predictions: Will a Heatwave Kill More Than a Million in India by 2040?
10% chance
Will the number of excess deaths caused by global heating before 2100 be closer to 1 million or 1 billion?
Conditional on at least 3 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
74% chance
Conditional on at least 5 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
60% chance
Conditional on at least 10 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
33% chance
How many heatwave deaths will occur in India in 2023?
597
Will any major urban areas be rendered uninhabitable due to wet bulb temperatures by 2050?
28% chance
Conditional on at least 2 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
77% chance
Conditional on at least 8 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
41% chance
Conditional on at least 15 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
25% chance