How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2026?
13
18kṀ42562027
73%
>= 100
64%
>= 200
57%
>= 300
51%
>= 500
48%
>= 800
30%
>= 1300
16%
>= 2100
This is an attempt to gauge whether Arizona will become uninhabitable due to climate change within the next decade, as predicted by this tweet:
Resolution will be based on my best estimate from credible reporting, Wikipedia articles, etc. If multiple credible sources are available, I'll resolve based on the geometric mean of available numbers.
I'll add more answers if trading prices indicate that's appropriate. Ditto creating more comparable questions for different dates.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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