Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if the complete source code of Minecraft: Java Edition is released under an open source license (OSI-approved or equivalent) that permits free use, modification, and redistribution. The source code must be publicly available in its entirety, not merely select libraries or components. Resolution can be verified via official Minecraft/Microsoft announcements or the official GitHub repository.
This market resolves NO if the game remains closed-source or if only partial libraries continue to be released without the full codebase becoming open source.
Background
Original Minecraft creator Notch stated he would release the game source code as open source once sales start dying and a minimum time has passed. However, Microsoft acquired Minecraft, and the company has not committed to full open-sourcing.
In October 2018, Mojang Studios open-sourced parts of the code for Java Edition, mainly the Brigadier command engine and the Data Fixer Upper. More recently, Mojang Studios announced it will remove obfuscation from Minecraft: Java Edition starting with the first snapshot after the Mounts of Mayhem update, with all original names included by default. However, Microsoft warns that there are no changes to the license; the source is accessible, but it's not free.
Considerations
Removing obfuscation and releasing select libraries are significant steps toward accessibility but do not constitute true open-sourcing under an OSI-approved license. The distinction matters: accessible code is not the same as open source code with permissive licensing that allows free modification and redistribution.
Update 2025-11-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Specific resolution requirements clarified:
Open source requires both source code being readily available and an OSI-approved license
Removal of obfuscation alone does not qualify as open source
Accessing code by inspecting the .jar file does not count as "readily available"
For YES resolution: A repository must be created on the official Mojang GitHub organization containing the Minecraft source code under an OSI-approved license
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@AlanTennant (Sorry for the late response! :p)
Only parts of code that's open source is Brigadier (https://github.com/Mojang/brigadier) and "DataFixerUpper" (https://github.com/Mojang/DataFixerUpper).
I class open-source as the source code being readily available and under an OSI-approved license. Currently, Minecraft: Java Edition is under the Minecraft EULA, and obfuscation being removed does not mean the source is readily available, since you still have to inspect the actual .jar to gain access to the code (which the removal of obfuscation does not really affect, since you can still access the code).
For the basis of this prediction, open-source will count as a repository on the official Mojang GitHub org being created that has the Minecraft source code, and the code being released under an OSI-approved license.
Hope that clears stuff up :D