Will monkey beat Minecraft by 2030?
Will monkey beat Minecraft by 2030?
9
190Ṁ2802029
12%
chance
1H
6H
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context: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKpFoYqN9-0
Resolves YES if any monkey can go from a fresh world to beat ender dragon with no human help playing the game. Humans are allowed to help with technical problems etc. but not with any gameplay. However the monke is allowed to use a an interface that is more compatible with monke.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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