WIll answers from top LLMs about COVID origins be stable in 2034?

Question

@/StrayClimb/will-llms-estimate-a-probability-ov

This market is about the stability of answers generated by the related market above.

The above question proposes asking a top LLM the same question five times.  Each attempt generates a percent estimate.

This market is about whether the results of those five attempts will be within ten percent of each other.

I e if the five attempts are: 5,5,5,5,15 this resolves true. (Within a band 10% wide)

If they are 5,15,15,16,15 this resolves false (the band is 11% wide or higher)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 41% chance (4 traders, as of Jan 16, 2024).