Will at least 100k Palestinians emigrate from the Gaza strip by EOY 2024?
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Plus
60
Ṁ9093
Jan 1
10%
chance

Population there is approx 2m (2023)

This is about whether 100k+ people previously living there are reported to have emigrated to another country to live (hence, the population would have decreased) at one time.

It's about whether it happens at any point until EOY 2024.

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If 100k left gaza to live in a refugee camp in Egypt just outside Gaza, how would that resolve?

@MichaelDarmousseh has to be yes, since the criteria is about physical location, not nationality, visa situation, refugee status etc.

It's being reported that 500,000 evacuated their homes in northern Gaza. Presumably, almost all of those people would prefer to emigrate out of Gaza rather than being homeless in South Gaza, so the limiting factor is transportation and countries willing to take them in. This war is getting a lot of coverage, so I think it's plausible (though obviously far from certain) that there will be enough sympathy for this to happen before the end of 2024.

not sure how to delete comments

@EliTanenbaum yeah, typically just blank it out. I can remove it if you ask but it'll still say "Hidden"

I'm confused this is so high - where would they emigrate? Who will let them in? I really doubt the answer is Israel, and Egypt has not permitted large amounts of Gazans for the last several decades.

@RobertCousineau if they were higher liquidity i would definitely knock all these markets way down for good

@SemioticRivalry I mean, nothing stopping you from cheaply at least moving it down and see if anybody bites by raising it up again

@SemioticRivalry chucked in a big YES order if you wanna bite.

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