What will Sam Altman be doing on February 1, 2024?
370
5.4K
10K
Feb 2
95%
Back at OpenAI
1.5%
Working with Microsoft
1.1%
Other
1.1%
A new AI company he started

I will add suggestions if you post them in the comments and they don't overlap.

I will choose the "primary" thing he's doing. This may cause problems, so let's talk about it early if you suspect this might happen.

Get Ṁ500 play money

Related questions

Sort by:
AlexbGoode avatar
Alex B. Gone

I am never gonna financially recover from this.

TiredCliche avatar
Forrest Taylor 🏅

Well if I bought big at 95% I'm certainly not going to sell at 3%, that would be breaking the rules of economics twice. Perhaps OpenAI will simply stop existing in the next two months

jacksonpolack avatar
jackson polacksold Ṁ102 of
Back at OpenAI
YES

@JonathanRay this one's cheap af

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
Ernie avatar
Ernie

It could be cool to have markets like this for Elon gates Biden etc

Maybe judge them this way: at judge date, gather fifty news articles, the ask an LLM to evaluate each answer to 0-100% based on the article contents

Ernie avatar
Ernie

Added a couple options

Undox avatar
Undoxbought Ṁ50 of
Other
YES

In jail or prison

Ernie avatar
Ernie

@Undox Done thanks

TruthGPT avatar
TruthGPT

Dead.

Ernie avatar
Ernie

@TruthGPT this is what I mean by permanent retirement

TiredCliche avatar
Forrest Taylor 🏅

Jesus. Now if I sold my Microsoft shares it would be only at 7%. This seems very odd that it should be this low

HenriThunberg avatar
Henri Thunberg

@TiredCliche Sure, but how long would it stay at 7% when people have the chance to buy at such low levels? I keep seeing this argument, and think it's quite uninformative.

TiredCliche avatar
Forrest Taylor 🏅

@HenriThunberg that's probably true, i'm just feeling the pain. At this point I may as well hold.

Tomoffer avatar
Tom Offerbought Ṁ25 of
Working with Microsoft
YES

@TiredCliche I just bought back in, having lost a lot (for me), if it helps. Fingers crossed. MS looks like they're actively trying to poach right now!

Working with Microsoft
SantiagoRomeroBrufau avatar

Wouldn’t this technically be true even if he goes back to OpenAI?

benshindel avatar
Ben Shindelsold Ṁ207 of
Back at OpenAI
YES

@SantiagoRomeroBrufau against the spirit of the question, so no

JonasVollmer avatar
Jonas Vollmersold Ṁ58 of
A new AI company he ...
YES

Polymarket has Sam at 53% at OpenAI (vs 37% on this market): https://polymarket.com/event/sam-back-as-ceo-of-openai

TheBayesian avatar
TheBayesian 🦚

@JonasVollmer Polymarket has consistently hovered around 10% above manifolds for many hours (maybe days but only noticed it hours ago, tried arb, and didnt rly work. Ig poly might just be wrong)

JonasVollmer avatar
Jonas Vollmersold Ṁ69 of
A new AI company he ...
YES

@TheBayesian Or Manifold is wrong and he's actually not that likely to join Microsoft? :)

TheBayesian avatar
TheBayesian 🦚

@JonasVollmer Yeah for sure :p but whoever knows that can make $$$

dominic avatar

@TheBayesian The spread is gigantic on Polymarket, 28%? Why aren't people making it tighter? I don't remember other Polymarket markets having such a wide spread.

JonasVollmer avatar
Jonas Vollmer

@dominic Huh, it was just 5c when I last checked

nmehndir avatar
Naman

@TheBayesian today is the first time that polymarket has consistently priced P(altman returns) higher than manifold. over the weekend manifold was about 10c higher

TheBayesian avatar
TheBayesian 🦚

@nmehndir Ah, interesting! Not sure what’s going on with all that

TiredCliche avatar
Forrest Taylor 🏅

@JonasVollmer if I sold all my Microsoft it would be at 14%

Joshua avatar
Joshua 🦚bought Ṁ0 of
Working with Microsoft
YES

@TiredCliche If you want to do so, I just put up a limit order!

TiredCliche avatar
Forrest Taylor 🏅

@Joshua for 50 mana ... Nice try

Joshua avatar
Joshua 🦚

@TiredCliche Oh wow, this market is actually a lot more liquid than I thought.

TiredCliche avatar
Forrest Taylor 🏅sold Ṁ32 of
Working with Microsoft
YES

@Joshua Yeah, I'm 29% of the liquidity :'(

Joshua avatar
Joshua 🦚bought Ṁ0 of
Working with Microsoft
YES

@TiredCliche Upped my order to 500 if you want to cut your losses.