What will Sam Altman be doing on February 1, 2024?
Standard
401
Ṁ210k
resolved Feb 5
100%99.0%
Back at OpenAI
0.4%
A new AI company he started
0.0%
Working at Anthropic
0.0%
A new non-AI company he started
0.0%
Working as a VC
0.0%
Retired/spending time with family/sports/etc
0.0%
It will be unknown since he will be totally off the radar
0.0%
Medical issues or "permanent retirement"
0.0%
Working with the government
0.1%
Involved in a court case
0.0%
Running for President
0.0%
Working with Elon on some AI thing
0.0%
Working at Google or Alphabet
0.1%
Working with Microsoft
0.0%
In Jail or Prison or gov't custody
0.0%
In flight from US or other nations official government agencies
0.1%Other

I will add suggestions if you post them in the comments and they don't overlap.

I will choose the "primary" thing he's doing. This may cause problems, so let's talk about it early if you suspect this might happen.

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Nice I did better than 2 of you!

Guess who's back, back again?

Sam is back, tell a friend

(for real, the slim shady thing was so brazenly mutually beneficial, I don't see how the US 2-party system survived it)

I am never gonna financially recover from this.

Well if I bought big at 95% I'm certainly not going to sell at 3%, that would be breaking the rules of economics twice. Perhaps OpenAI will simply stop existing in the next two months

@JonathanRay this one's cheap af

It could be cool to have markets like this for Elon gates Biden etc

Maybe judge them this way: at judge date, gather fifty news articles, the ask an LLM to evaluate each answer to 0-100% based on the article contents

Added a couple options

In jail or prison

@Undox Done thanks

Dead.

@TruthGPT this is what I mean by permanent retirement

Jesus. Now if I sold my Microsoft shares it would be only at 7%. This seems very odd that it should be this low

@TiredCliche Sure, but how long would it stay at 7% when people have the chance to buy at such low levels? I keep seeing this argument, and think it's quite uninformative.

@HenriThunberg that's probably true, i'm just feeling the pain. At this point I may as well hold.

@TiredCliche I just bought back in, having lost a lot (for me), if it helps. Fingers crossed. MS looks like they're actively trying to poach right now!

Working with Microsoft

Wouldn’t this technically be true even if he goes back to OpenAI?

@SantiagoRomeroBrufau against the spirit of the question, so no

Polymarket has Sam at 53% at OpenAI (vs 37% on this market): https://polymarket.com/event/sam-back-as-ceo-of-openai

@JonasVollmer if I sold all my Microsoft it would be at 14%

@TiredCliche If you want to do so, I just put up a limit order!

@Joshua for 50 mana ... Nice try

@TiredCliche Oh wow, this market is actually a lot more liquid than I thought.

@Joshua Yeah, I'm 29% of the liquidity :'(

@TiredCliche Upped my order to 500 if you want to cut your losses.