What will Sam Altman be doing on February 1, 2024?
resolved Feb 5
Back at OpenAI
A new AI company he started
Working at Anthropic
A new non-AI company he started
Working as a VC
Retired/spending time with family/sports/etc
It will be unknown since he will be totally off the radar
Medical issues or "permanent retirement"
Working with the government
Involved in a court case
Running for President
Working with Elon on some AI thing
Working at Google or Alphabet
Working with Microsoft
In Jail or Prison or gov't custody
In flight from US or other nations official government agencies

I will add suggestions if you post them in the comments and they don't overlap.

I will choose the "primary" thing he's doing. This may cause problems, so let's talk about it early if you suspect this might happen.

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Nice I did better than 2 of you!

Guess who's back, back again?

Sam is back, tell a friend

(for real, the slim shady thing was so brazenly mutually beneficial, I don't see how the US 2-party system survived it)

I am never gonna financially recover from this.

Well if I bought big at 95% I'm certainly not going to sell at 3%, that would be breaking the rules of economics twice. Perhaps OpenAI will simply stop existing in the next two months

@JonathanRay this one's cheap af

It could be cool to have markets like this for Elon gates Biden etc

Maybe judge them this way: at judge date, gather fifty news articles, the ask an LLM to evaluate each answer to 0-100% based on the article contents

Added a couple options

In jail or prison

@Undox Done thanks


@TruthGPT this is what I mean by permanent retirement

Jesus. Now if I sold my Microsoft shares it would be only at 7%. This seems very odd that it should be this low

@TiredCliche Sure, but how long would it stay at 7% when people have the chance to buy at such low levels? I keep seeing this argument, and think it's quite uninformative.

@HenriThunberg that's probably true, i'm just feeling the pain. At this point I may as well hold.

@TiredCliche I just bought back in, having lost a lot (for me), if it helps. Fingers crossed. MS looks like they're actively trying to poach right now!

Working with Microsoft

Wouldn’t this technically be true even if he goes back to OpenAI?

@SantiagoRomeroBrufau against the spirit of the question, so no

Polymarket has Sam at 53% at OpenAI (vs 37% on this market): https://polymarket.com/event/sam-back-as-ceo-of-openai

@JonasVollmer Polymarket has consistently hovered around 10% above manifolds for many hours (maybe days but only noticed it hours ago, tried arb, and didnt rly work. Ig poly might just be wrong)

@TheBayesian Or Manifold is wrong and he's actually not that likely to join Microsoft? :)

@JonasVollmer Yeah for sure :p but whoever knows that can make $$$

@TheBayesian The spread is gigantic on Polymarket, 28%? Why aren't people making it tighter? I don't remember other Polymarket markets having such a wide spread.

@dominic Huh, it was just 5c when I last checked

@TheBayesian today is the first time that polymarket has consistently priced P(altman returns) higher than manifold. over the weekend manifold was about 10c higher

@nmehndir Ah, interesting! Not sure what’s going on with all that

@JonasVollmer if I sold all my Microsoft it would be at 14%

@TiredCliche If you want to do so, I just put up a limit order!

@Joshua for 50 mana ... Nice try

@TiredCliche Oh wow, this market is actually a lot more liquid than I thought.

@Joshua Yeah, I'm 29% of the liquidity :'(

@TiredCliche Upped my order to 500 if you want to cut your losses.