Nice I did better than 2 of you!

Guess who's back, back again?

Sam is back, tell a friend

(for real, the slim shady thing was so brazenly mutually beneficial, I don't see how the US 2-party system survived it)

I am never gonna financially recover from this.

Well if I bought big at 95% I'm certainly not going to sell at 3%, that would be breaking the rules of economics twice. Perhaps OpenAI will simply stop existing in the next two months

@JonathanRay this one's cheap af

It could be cool to have markets like this for Elon gates Biden etc

Maybe judge them this way: at judge date, gather fifty news articles, the ask an LLM to evaluate each answer to 0-100% based on the article contents

Added a couple options

In jail or prison

@Undox Done thanks

Dead.

@TruthGPT this is what I mean by permanent retirement

Jesus. Now if I sold my Microsoft shares it would be only at 7%. This seems very odd that it should be this low

@TiredCliche Sure, but how long would it stay at 7% when people have the chance to buy at such low levels? I keep seeing this argument, and think it's quite uninformative.

@HenriThunberg that's probably true, i'm just feeling the pain. At this point I may as well hold.

@TiredCliche I just bought back in, having lost a lot (for me), if it helps. Fingers crossed. MS looks like they're actively trying to poach right now!

Wouldn’t this technically be true even if he goes back to OpenAI?

@SantiagoRomeroBrufau against the spirit of the question, so no

Polymarket has Sam at 53% at OpenAI (vs 37% on this market): https://polymarket.com/event/sam-back-as-ceo-of-openai

@JonasVollmer Polymarket has consistently hovered around 10% above manifolds for many hours (maybe days but only noticed it hours ago, tried arb, and didnt rly work. Ig poly might just be wrong)

@TheBayesian Or Manifold is wrong and he's actually not that likely to join Microsoft? :)

@JonasVollmer Yeah for sure :p but whoever knows that can make $$$

@TheBayesian The spread is gigantic on Polymarket, 28%? Why aren't people making it tighter? I don't remember other Polymarket markets having such a wide spread.

@dominic Huh, it was just 5c when I last checked

@TheBayesian today is the first time that polymarket has consistently priced P(altman returns) higher than manifold. over the weekend manifold was about 10c higher

@nmehndir Ah, interesting! Not sure what’s going on with all that

@JonasVollmer if I sold all my Microsoft it would be at 14%

@TiredCliche If you want to do so, I just put up a limit order!

@Joshua for 50 mana ... Nice try

@TiredCliche Oh wow, this market is actually a lot more liquid than I thought.

@Joshua Yeah, I'm 29% of the liquidity :'(

@TiredCliche Upped my order to 500 if you want to cut your losses.