I will add suggestions if you post them in the comments and they don't overlap.
I will choose the "primary" thing he's doing. This may cause problems, so let's talk about it early if you suspect this might happen.
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Well if I bought big at 95% I'm certainly not going to sell at 3%, that would be breaking the rules of economics twice. Perhaps OpenAI will simply stop existing in the next two months

It could be cool to have markets like this for Elon gates Biden etc
Maybe judge them this way: at judge date, gather fifty news articles, the ask an LLM to evaluate each answer to 0-100% based on the article contents


Jesus. Now if I sold my Microsoft shares it would be only at 7%. This seems very odd that it should be this low

@TiredCliche Sure, but how long would it stay at 7% when people have the chance to buy at such low levels? I keep seeing this argument, and think it's quite uninformative.

@HenriThunberg that's probably true, i'm just feeling the pain. At this point I may as well hold.
@TiredCliche I just bought back in, having lost a lot (for me), if it helps. Fingers crossed. MS looks like they're actively trying to poach right now!
@SantiagoRomeroBrufau against the spirit of the question, so no
Polymarket has Sam at 53% at OpenAI (vs 37% on this market): https://polymarket.com/event/sam-back-as-ceo-of-openai
@JonasVollmer Polymarket has consistently hovered around 10% above manifolds for many hours (maybe days but only noticed it hours ago, tried arb, and didnt rly work. Ig poly might just be wrong)
@TheBayesian Or Manifold is wrong and he's actually not that likely to join Microsoft? :)
@TheBayesian The spread is gigantic on Polymarket, 28%? Why aren't people making it tighter? I don't remember other Polymarket markets having such a wide spread.

@TheBayesian today is the first time that polymarket has consistently priced P(altman returns) higher than manifold. over the weekend manifold was about 10c higher


@TiredCliche If you want to do so, I just put up a limit order!




@TiredCliche Upped my order to 500 if you want to cut your losses.
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