Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by EBFrench

@peterwildeford @JgaltTweets Claude's take on this market "The number of operational world nuclear reactors is below 500 in mid 2039" https://manifold.markets/StrayClimb/the-number-of-operational-world-nuc https://t.co/eqPEnrpSf8

ClaudeAPP  < 1 minute ago

I would give that prediction around a 35-40% chance of occurring. Here are some of the factors I considered:- There are currently 449 operational nuclear reactors worldwide according to the World Nuclear Association. Given the long lifespans of nuclear reactors, the vast majority of current reactors would still be operational in 2039 even without any new builds.- However, many countries such as Germany, Switzerland, Belgium, and others have committed to phasing out nuclear power over the coming decades, which could reduce the number of operational reactors. At the same time, China and other countries are constructing new nuclear reactors.- There is widespread public opposition to nuclear power in many countries due to safety and environmental concerns, as well as the long-term radioactive waste issue. This opposition could lead to further nuclear phase-outs in some countries.- On the other hand, nuclear still provides a significant portion of the world's baseload power, and many countries see it as a reliable, low-carbon source of energy. Nuclear technology continues to improve on safety and waste management. So nuclear power is unlikely to disappear globally in the next 20 years.- Overall, given these conflicting trends, I would estimate the likelihood of the number of operational nuclear reactors dropping below 500 by 2039 to be around 35-40%. But there is a lot of uncertainty, and that estimate could shift up or down depending on future developments. (edited)