OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030
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Plus
48
15k
2030
33%
chance

Fleshing out details now. Overall goal:

To YES if things like this happen:

  • OpenAI is significantly owned or controlled by the US government

  • US Agents are present at most important meetings or determine direction of the company, or are controlling or seriously influencing the board

  • OpenAI is legally required to follow the directions of US government when it comes to producing

  • OpenAI has been forced to sell or merge or share ownership of the company with the US Government, or has been required to take a large investment from the US Government, for example, by using a huge datacenter built by the US.

  • openAI is subsumed into another private entity which is then nationalized

To NO if things like this happen:

  • OpenAI still independently determines its own direction, resources etc. Influence from investors, owners, microsoft etc is fine.

  • openAI doesn't exist at all anymore or is very damaged such as lost 80% of staff or is broken down into small units etc. this needs refinement.

Difficult situations

  • openAI is acquired and then part of it is semi controlled

  • Shadow entities and hints

  • openAI starts doing really major work for usgov but no power/control information is really formally confirmed, but there are lots of rumors

Irrelevant things

  • New names

Plan: I'll work on terms over the weekend at manifest and lock them in (still not immutable, but more than now) Tuesday June 11

The idea is based on the Dwarkesh interview with Leopold Aschenbrennrr, which has lots of other claims we should have on manifold, too.

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bought Ṁ300 YES

https://chatgpt.com/share/e8dd672c-454b-4ff1-9efd-02f78f1c9b67 example of research. Would welcome your submissions too

bought Ṁ550 NO

"OpenAI doesn't exist (excluding name changes)" and similar ways of the answer of the headline being a clear NO, resolves to NO right?

@HenriThunberg I'll clarify with gpt to help later on. Thanks for the question.

Wouldn’t any form of AI regulation technically fall under “OpenAI is legally required to follow the directions of US government when it comes to producing” where any law = direction of the government?

@Putcallparity I need to clarify that to distinguish per company direct control from generally being within a us law region