More than 50% of children born in 2026 in the USA will not learn to drive | Manifold

More than 50% of children born in 2026 in the USA will not learn to drive

12

1kṀ358

2048

50%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

We will wait til they are age 22 or a reasonable age. and evaluate whether at least 50% never learn to drive. Provisional due date mid 2048

This is based on a marginal revolution blog post by Alex Tabarrok: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/11/autonomous-vehicles-lower-insurance-costs.html

Autonomous Vehicles Lower Insurance Costs - Marginal REVOLUTION

The insurance giant Swiss RE did a study comparing human drivers with Waymo autonomous vehicles in the same zip-codes and found that autonomous vehicles generated significantly fewer insurance claims. This study compares the safety of autonomous- and human drivers. It finds that the Waymo One autonomous service is significantly safer towards other road users than […]

Get

1,000

to start trading!

Sort by:

People are also trading

By what year will a majority of cars on US roads lack human drivers

Will any state in the USA ban self driving cars by the end of 2026?

-5% 1d14% chance

Will any USA state ban self driving cars by the end of 2025?

Will any USA state ban self driving cars by the end of 2029?

Will my children need to learn to drive?

Will there be any children born in 2025 in the US, that do not receive the option of birthright citizenship?

Will it be illegal to drive a car in the US by end of 2040?

Fewer than 40k people die from car accidents annually in the US before 2040

Which will be the first year the USA has less than 15k traffic deaths? (42k in 2024)

Greater than 45k people die from car accidents annually in the US before 2040

Related questions

By what year will a majority of cars on US roads lack human drivers

Will any state in the USA ban self driving cars by the end of 2026?

Will any USA state ban self driving cars by the end of 2025?

Will any USA state ban self driving cars by the end of 2029?

Will my children need to learn to drive?

Will there be any children born in 2025 in the US, that do not receive the option of birthright citizenship?

Will it be illegal to drive a car in the US by end of 2040?

Fewer than 40k people die from car accidents annually in the US before 2040

Which will be the first year the USA has less than 15k traffic deaths? (42k in 2024)

Greater than 45k people die from car accidents annually in the US before 2040

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy