More than 50% of children born in 2026 in the USA will not learn to drive
12
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50%
chance
1D
1W
1M
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We will wait til they are age 22 or a reasonable age. and evaluate whether at least 50% never learn to drive. Provisional due date mid 2048
This is based on a marginal revolution blog post by Alex Tabarrok: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/11/autonomous-vehicles-lower-insurance-costs.html
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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