More than 50% of children born in 2026 in the USA will not learn to drive | Manifold

More than 50% of children born in 2026 in the USA will not learn to drive

12

1kṀ358

2048

50%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

We will wait til they are age 22 or a reasonable age. and evaluate whether at least 50% never learn to drive. Provisional due date mid 2048

This is based on a marginal revolution blog post by Alex Tabarrok: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/11/autonomous-vehicles-lower-insurance-costs.html

Autonomous Vehicles Lower Insurance Costs - Marginal REVOLUTION

The insurance giant Swiss RE did a study comparing human drivers with Waymo autonomous vehicles in the same zip-codes and found that autonomous vehicles generated significantly fewer insurance claims. This study compares the safety of autonomous- and human drivers. It finds that the Waymo One autonomous service is significantly safer towards other road users than […]

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