By what year will a majority of cars on US roads lack human drivers | Manifold

By what year will a majority of cars on US roads lack human drivers

11

Ṁ1kṀ1.4k

2070

2049.8

expected

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

4%

Before 2030

15%

2030 - 2039

37%

2040 - 2049

19%

2050 - 2059

17%

2060 - 2070

7%

After 2070

Update 2025-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be determined by count of cars (not by miles traveled), ideally using car registration data or similar measures.

Update 2025-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Parked cars on streets/roads: Count toward resolution if they are registered as active

Market context

Technical AI Timelines

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will any U.S. state formally announce plans to phase out human drivers by 2040?

Will 50% of US commuters travel via autonomous vehicles by 2030?

Will any state in the USA ban self driving cars by the end of 2026?

When will a large majority of rideshare be done by self-driving cars?

Will it be illegal to drive a car in the US by end of 2040?

Will self-driving cars become the primary mode of transportation in major US cities by 2030?

Will at least half of new cars sold in 2038 in the US be fully autonomous?

By which year will there be self-driving cars in New York City?

Will level 4 self-driving cars be generally available in the US before 2030?

Will a country ban human driven cars in favor of AI self driving in at least one city center by the end of 2040?

Sort by:

Do parked cars count if they're on a street or road?

@Jwags if they’re registered as active

bought Ṁ100 YES

by majority of miles traveled?

@JoshYou while that would be a reasonable measure, my aim is to do this by count of cars. Ideally by car registration or some similar measure if I can find it.

People are also trading

Will any U.S. state formally announce plans to phase out human drivers by 2040?

Will 50% of US commuters travel via autonomous vehicles by 2030?

Will any state in the USA ban self driving cars by the end of 2026?

When will a large majority of rideshare be done by self-driving cars?

Will it be illegal to drive a car in the US by end of 2040?

Will self-driving cars become the primary mode of transportation in major US cities by 2030?

Will at least half of new cars sold in 2038 in the US be fully autonomous?

By which year will there be self-driving cars in New York City?

Will level 4 self-driving cars be generally available in the US before 2030?

Will a country ban human driven cars in favor of AI self driving in at least one city center by the end of 2040?

Related questions

Will any U.S. state formally announce plans to phase out human drivers by 2040?

Will 50% of US commuters travel via autonomous vehicles by 2030?

Will any state in the USA ban self driving cars by the end of 2026?

When will a large majority of rideshare be done by self-driving cars?

Will it be illegal to drive a car in the US by end of 2040?

Will self-driving cars become the primary mode of transportation in major US cities by 2030?

Will at least half of new cars sold in 2038 in the US be fully autonomous?

By which year will there be self-driving cars in New York City?

Will level 4 self-driving cars be generally available in the US before 2030?

Will a country ban human driven cars in favor of AI self driving in at least one city center by the end of 2040?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy