The market will resolve as YES if any federal law prohibits human drivers from operating any type of motor vehicle on public roads by December 31, 2040.
The market will resolve as NO if no such law exists by that date.
The market will not consider any exemptions, waivers, or grandfather clauses that may allow some drivers to continue driving under certain conditions. The market will also not consider any laws that require drivers to obtain a special permit that is not easily achievable or widely available.
Over my dead body, and hundreds of millions of others will react the same way. Simply not gonna happen.
@CarsonGale Small bet only because I put the probability around 10-11%. For any safetyist hot take there's always a small but serious chance the Dems will seriously go for it. See the gas stove controversy earlier this year.
@ConnorWilliams This is a good example of why I think it's valuable to put probabilities to things. With your first message, I would have interpreted your probability as <5% chance.
