Fewer than 40k people die from car accidents annually in the US before 2040
5
110Ṁ196
2040
90%
chance

2022 number: 42,795

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year

  • Update 2025-03-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarified Resolution Criteria:

    • The market will resolve YES if there is just one year before 2040 with fewer than 40k car accident deaths.

    • This includes all years in the period (with 2039 explicitly included).

    • Official data for each year will be used to determine success.

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How does this resolve if there is a year with < 40k but 2039 has > 40k?

@1a3orn 2039 is included. We may have to wait for data if needed

@1a3orn also, it just takes one year of success before this can YES

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