Is the OpenAI Crisis over (for the month?)
Is the OpenAI Crisis over (for the month?)
29
530Ṁ3747
resolved Dec 4
Resolved
YES

Today, Sam announced he would return as OpenAI CEO

If nothing big happens by end of month, I'll consider the Crisis is over and this is YES

Things that would be big must be big enough to possibly immediately imperil the status quo as of now:

  • loss of a very important individual from where they are now in an unexpected, sudden, or surprising way, related to this issue

  • serious lawsuits against any of the leaders involved from any party, openai employees, board members, USGov

  • serious criminal charges filed against important individuals or organizations

  • Further uncertainty about the immediate leadership situation of OpenAI

  • Similarly very surprising and significant events

Parties involved:

  • Sam Altman, Greg Brockman, Ilya, OpenAI, OpenAI Board, Microsoft and Satya

Edits:

  • Resignation of the board would count as it not having been over yet, so NO

  • Individual changes to the board do not automatically mean NO

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ76
2Ṁ61
3Ṁ34
4Ṁ28
5Ṁ25


Sort by:
1y

This is about whether things appear over through end of month vs a big thing visibly happening

predictedYES 1y

@Ernie In your view, has anything big happened since it was announced Altman would return?

1y

@NicoDelon I don't think I've seen anything at the level of the things in the list, but people can post

1y

Everything this company does is fast. It started on Friday and was more or less over by Tueday. Efficient.

1y

Arbitrage:

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy