Greenland changes and development multi market, all due June 30 2028
➕
Plus
13
Ṁ3686
2028
84%
GDP > 4b (3.85b in 2024)
43%
GDP > 5b (3.85b in 2024)
37%
Google trends for Greenland, judged at each January, never exceeds the search volume of Jan 2025, USA up to and including 2028
36%
Trump visits greenland
24%
20+ story building built
21%
Cabinet level current us official visits greenland
20%
Thule Air Force Base expands to over 3000 personnel at least part of the year, up from 600 now
20%
Us has another military base at least 500 personnel
20%
Greenland citizens receive money or other financial benefits from us gov
20%
Chinese national population of Greenland exceeds 200
20%
Greenland has 2 or more registered air flight carriers (1 in 2024)
20%
Greenland has a positive annual migration rate (-4.9/1000 in 2024)
15%
Greenland has a military
14%
Greenland population falls below 40000
14%
Current Greenland political borders change so that another country has a piece of it
14%
Gains nuclear power station. Excluding military vessels. Portable is okay
10%
USD is the used currency
10%
Military conflict over Greenland at least 5 casualties involving two+ conflicting powers
9%
Greenland significantly changes its flag
6%
Greenland population is <80% ethnic greenlander (88% in 2025)

When something is "built" it has to at least be funded and to have broken ground.

All claims refer to Greenland. If coverage of a change is not evenly spread throughout the area, we refer to the largest city by population. US military bases which are over 80% us military it direct support personnel enployed by the federal govt or contractors will not count. Such staff, if less than 80% of a built up area will still count. Eg if the capital has 100k people and 30k are us military related the entire 100k counts.

Source for many of the factual claims: Greenland - The World Factbook https://search.app/wXfVozWRa3hdMT9RA

Judging: by reasonable consent of bettors. Note: at market creation I have bet most markets down because otherwise I'm going to lose a lot. Bettors can request judgement of claims by LLM or by other human disinterested arbiter if this is a problem. My goal is to resolve claims in the most clear meaningful way. Eg about a 20+ building: if it's a virtual building in a metaverse, that won't count. If it's a dollhouse with 21 stories, no. If it's a radio spire, no. If the building has broken ground but then construction stops and the company is out of business and no further work is happening, that'd be no. (Yes could be if ground is broken, company is proceeding but it's just not wiite done yet at due date. In general I'd look to defer to a reasonable standard such as that used by the guiness book of world records. I'm looking to resolve claims so that if they YES it represents a belief against what NO holders rationally think and d matches a belief YES people would hold.

Market closes and refers to the period from creation to EOD June 30 2028 CA time. There may be some delay resolving some claims or waiting for data to come out. Please communicate with me in comments. Thanks.

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